“The Day after Tomorrow” is on show. How do the IT people face it

SmisWang

Recently the snow disaster is happening in many places. The disaster is so peculiar, so fierce. My friend described it as “The Day after Tomorrow”. Just like what happens in the movie, the enduring snow cuts off the traffic and the life become disorder. All the people have to resist the disaster. It conforms to the situation in the movie.



It has no direct relationship with IT people. All the people will face the winter including IT people. But what I want to say is the IT industry. What happens in the movie is happening in IT industry and the industry is becoming depressive. The situation of ITer is worse and worse.



“The Day after Tomorrow” derives from the developing of the whole industry. We have described the industry as “bubble economy”. These years we have little chance to see this kind of words because it is not rational. Once the bubble disappeared, the industry can be rational and the disaster will follow it.



The depression of IT industry is shown in capital market. The capital market is hypersensitive. The sub prime mortgage crisis happened in America and the Citigroup deficit then the market plunged. It called effect to the whole world. The market can give hypersensitive reflection according to the economy crisis. So it is the sign of one industry or even the economy of the whole country.



However, the capital market is utilitarian and eyeless. The stock market can’t reflect the situation of one industry exactly. If one or two stocks become depressive, nothing can be obtained for the whole industry but if most stocks are depressive? Alibaba and the Giant and Kingsoft has encountered the plunging of stock price. So it is with the three old portals and Baidu. That’s just the same as the snow which hits so many places.



The VC pays less and less attention to IT. I believe many friends have watched “Win in China”. Few projects on IT can win in the program. The VC and entrepreneurs have little interest in them. For one industry, the potential conforms to the opportunity. If it has few opportunities, it means the industry has reached saturation point.





The third aspect is that the current of ITer is so worried. There are many kinds of Iter according to their different duties. For example programmer, we call them “IT farmer”. The other kind of works for example accounts, designers, sales, generally speaking there are no relation with ITer but we also call them ITer.



In China, most Iters are young but unpromising. The system of “survival of the fittest” is evitable. The older the worse and it is wholly different with lawyers, teachers and doctors. So the better choice is to spare your time and energy into other fields besides IT.



So “The Day after Tomorrow” of IT is colder and more rigorous. I hope all ITers can prepare well for the cold winter.





“后天”正在演绎，IT人如何迎接“后天”



文/Smis Wang (欢迎翻译和约稿等合作)

QQ 543415188



这些天全国很多地方正在遭受着几十年罕见的“雪灾”，我有朋友形象称之为“后天”在演绎，“后天”是美国的一部灾难片，我看过很少部分，故事讲的是持久不断的暴雪致使交通中断，生活紊乱，不得不全民抗灾。如今“满城尽吹暴风雪”，以“后天”形容甚为妥当。



其实这和IT人并无直接关系，IT人要过这个冬天，其他人也要过。我想提出的是，IT人的“后天”也正在上演，IT人的“后天”，是IT行业的后天。自Web2.0以来，整个IT行业已经陷入低迷与不景气，IT从业人员的状况普遍堪忧，而这，正像当前持续不断的“后天”一样。



IT行业的后天始于整个行业的完善与理性。以前我们常用泡沫经济形容IT行业，但这两年我们已经很少再看到这样的字眼，因为泡沫经济是不理性的，是容易破灭的，而一旦这个泡沫破灭，IT行业也将步入理性的发展时期，但随之而来的却是一场大灾难。



IT行业的后天首先体现在资本市场，因为资本市场的反应是最为敏感的，你看美国次级债危机一爆发，花旗巨亏，股市立即大跌，波及全球。史上几次著名的经济危机，在股市上都表现的淋漓尽致。所以，资本市场几乎已经成了整个行业甚至国民经济发展的一个风向标。



然而，资本市场有其功利性和盲目，因此股市并不能完全反映一个行业的状况，如果只是一两支股票低迷，则不能说明整个行业的状况，如果大部分都低迷呢？2007年上市的阿里巴巴、巨人以及金山都先后遭遇了股价的大跌，在纳斯达克的三大门户甚至百度也未能幸免。这就好比目前的大雪，不止在一两个地方肆虐。



其次就是风险投资和企业家对IT行业的态度已经逐渐由追捧降为冷淡。多的不说，仅举一例，《赢在中国》相信很多人都看过，连续的三届以来真很少有IT行业的项目被投资者和企业家相中。对一个行业来讲，其发展潜力和创业机会是成正比的，如果创业机会少了，也意味着这个行业趋于饱和。



其三是IT人的现状着实令人堪忧。IT人也分三六九等，最低等的应该算是搞技术的这类，比如程序员。我们说的IT民工大多指这类人，在IT公司做其他工作的人，比如IT公司的会计、策划、营销、市场人员，严格意义上来说和IT并无实质性牵连，这些人也勉强归为IT人。



IT人的风光其实早已不在，在中国，IT从业者都很年轻，这促使IT行业成为了一个“优胜劣汰”机制极强的行业，越老越无竞争力。这和其他例如医生、律师、老师等完全相反。因此，最好的选择是不做纯种IT人，半只脚踏进IT行业，半只脚伸出来，这才是长久之计。遗憾的是，很多人不明白这个道理，30岁做个程序员或许还勉强，40岁做则完全无竞争力。



所以，IT行业的后天，IT人的后天，远比目前这个后天要严峻。还望所有的IT人备足粮草，以安度寒冬。

Will Jerry Yang be besieged from all sides?

Today I enjoyed two messages on the event of Microsoft purchased Yahoo. First is that the manager of Microsoft told that after the transaction there will be no reduction in personnel. The second is the founder of Google expressed that the union of Microsoft and Yahoo will be bad for the competition of Internet. According to the lawsuit of the stockholder of Yahoo, we can make a conclusion that Microsoft is the best choice for Yahoo but it is also the choice Jerry Yang hates. So while more and more people support the business, will Jerry be besieged from all sides?

Microsoft VS News Corporation, who is the better choice?

The business of Yahoo will include four parts. They are Microsoft, Yahoo, News Corporation and Google. Now Yahoo has two choices ---Microsoft or News Corporation. The bid for Microsoft is 446 Dollars and the bid for News Corporation is 500 Dollars. Apparently News Corporation is the better choice. But for the integration of business, Microsoft will cater for the value of Yahoo.

The resource of Yahoo includes two parts, one is search engine and the other is portal. Microsoft aims to get the search engine of Yahoo but News Corporation aims to portal. If Microsoft succeeds, it will be more powerful and changes the market. If News Corporation succeeds, Yahoo has to sell the search product to Google. It is contrary to antimonopoly law, so Microsoft has superior in right time and right place.

The stockholders of Yahoo prefer Microsoft?

The report said since 11th Feb, Yahoo refused the proposal of Microsoft, there have been several stockholders brought lawsuits against Yahoo. We can see the stockholder is satisfied with the bid of Microsoft. At the same time, they pointed out that the aim for Yahoo seeks for other competitor is to drive up the bid. That can’t cater for the value of stockholder. So they don’t think high on other competitors, they are afraid that Microsoft loss patient.

It can show that the stockholders have less confident on other competitors. If we think over the value of stockholders first, there is nothing wrong with the bid of Microsoft. Microsoft has expressed the idea that it won’t drive up the price. So the seesaw battle just leads the failure. Microsoft is the best purchaser and the stockholders accept the bid of Microsoft.

Microsoft will cut the ground of Yahoo?

Microsoft won’t fire any staff after the business that gives a kind of certification. Gates said that Yahoo engineers worth 40 billion dollars. It means that the business, the brand and the product line are worthless. So the significant strategy is to obtain the staff of Yahoo.

That can bring more support from the masses. Generally speaking, the first event after the business is to fire the staff. But Microsoft will pay more fee and compensation to the staff of Yahoo and Microsoft. So for the staff of Yahoo, they have no reason to refuse because the perspective of Yahoo is uncertain.

So Microsoft has enough conditions to do with the business. But that lies on Jerry Yang. If Microsoft attacks it from outside to inside, will Jerry Yang be besieged from all sides? We will look forward to the result.

拒绝微软，杨致远会不会四面楚歌？

文/王易见(欢迎翻译和约稿等合作)
QQ 543415188
今天看到两条关于微软收购雅虎的消息，一条是微软高管站出来说收购雅虎后不会大规模裁员；另一个是Google创始人布林称微软雅虎结盟将危及互联网良性竞争，前者旨在稳定军心，后者是恐二者联合对其产生威胁。加上此前雅虎股东诉讼微软洽购雅虎侵权，我们大致可得出这个结论------微软应该是雅虎最合适的收购者，同时，也是杨致远最抵制的收购者，只是这个抵制微软的雅虎酋长会不会因拒绝微软这个合适的收购者而四面楚歌呢？

一，微软VS新闻集团，谁是最可能的竞购者？

雅虎案大致涉及四方，分别是微软、雅虎、新闻集团以及Google。目前可选择的收购者有微软和新闻集团，前者出价为446亿美元，后者为500亿。似乎新闻集团出价更合雅虎股东之意，但从业务层面上看，微软并购雅虎的价值将大于新闻集团并购雅虎的价值。

雅虎可开发的资源大致有两块，一是搜索，一是门户。微软旨在搜索领域，而新闻集团意在门户内容。微软并购雅虎之后在搜索广告上的影响将是立竿见影的，有可能改变Google一家独大的局面，这正是微软期待的。相反，雅虎和新闻集团旗下的互动媒体资源合并之后，只能选择外包搜索广告业务给Google，而这又恰恰违背了反垄断法。因此客观上讲，微软占有天时地利的优势。

二，股东普遍偏好微软？

有报道称，自从2月11日雅虎正式拒绝微软收购提议以来，已经有几起雅虎股东起诉雅虎的案子。看来股东对微软的出价还是较为满意，同时指出雅虎追求其他竞购者无非是想抬高价格，称这是对股东不负责任的做法，分析可知，这些股东不太看好其他收购者，又恐微软失去耐心，才对拒绝微软嗤之以鼻。

这只能反应股东对雅虎及其他竞购者缺乏信心而唯独看好微软。如果以股东价值最大化为前提，让微软抬高收购价格也无所谓，只是微软已经明确表示不会提高报价，拉锯战只能导致收购泡汤。而微软又是最可能的收购者，股东手里的雅虎股票一半换现金一半换微软股票应该是不错的交易方案，而且微软的报价溢价达到62%，符合股东的利益诉求，因此才会起诉雅虎“不识时务”。

三，微软可能挖雅虎墙角对抗Google？

微软明确提到收购雅虎后不会大规模裁员，这给雅虎员工打了一针强心剂。此前比尔盖茨称雅虎工程师价值400亿美元，言外之意是雅虎的业务和品牌、产品线都不值钱，要搞定雅虎只需搞定雅虎的人才即可。

这无疑会给微软收购雅虎带来广泛的群众基础，一般说来，并购完成的第一件事就是裁员，微软不但不会裁员，甚至不吝巨额奖金和补偿金来挽留雅虎和微软的员工，并保证不会出现冗余裁员的情况，这对雅虎员工来说，也是无法拒绝的一个诱惑，毕竟雅虎前景太过渺茫，与其明珠暗投，不如另谋高就。

看来，微软收购雅虎或许的确有了天时地利与人和的条件，一切只需杨致远最后拍板，那么在微软内外夹击的情况下，杨会不会四面楚歌呢？从当前局势来看，我很为之揪心。

It’s better to study from SNDA than to criticize it

I remember that I enjoyed one program named “Win in China”. One time, the topic was on the relationship between business rationality and moral underline. I think there is no conclusion between such topics. Today I read the financial report of SNDA. In the last quarter, the retained profits reach 4010 dollars. There must be many parents will be disappointed because they hate SNDA so much. However, I think if our parents can learn how to control our children just as TianQiao Chen controls the enterprise, there will be fewer children fall in love with SNDA.

Take precautions before it rains

Three years ago, when SNDA had a deficit of more than 500 million, many people said that SNDA would die. But today, SNDA is not dead but more and more powerful. The reason for the deficit is the strategy of Home Entertainment. My friends tell me that although the conception of Home Entertainment is too advanced but they have to admire the vision and force of TianQiao Chen.

The profit is not only significant for SNDA but also for NetEase. NetEase has a strong ability to gain profit but the strategy of NetEase falls behind SNDA. So many people criticize that NetEase is just one moneygrubber who own several billions. No future for no invests. But for SNDA, that is one strategy full of perspective. Chen knows that the On-line games won’t be the product for ever. SNDA must transform to other kind of enterprise。

The innovation idea of SNDA

In one program named Brains Storm, the program mentioned TianQiao Chen. Yan Yan who is the primary partner of SoftBank Saif argued over SNDA with Xin Xu who is the CEO of Capital Today. The topic is whether the free On-line game affected the whole market. Today, we know SNDA is successful to take the strategy of free On-line Game. It is successful but lucky. Every step of SNDA is dangerous.

There are many highlights in 2007 for SNDA. It purchased the company of Haitao Peng. It encourages the start up of the workers. The strategy saved a lot of money for SNDA and lowered the risk and enriched the products. We take not of that SNDA can perform well in every crucial moment. When we have no confident on On-line game, SNDA can call up the passion of Capital Market.

Be steady in every field

Giant, NetEase and SNDA are the most wonderful companies in the field of On-line Games. We know Giant is more like one upstart. There are close relationship between the company and YuZhu Shi. NetEase is so conservative that Ding won’t try to open up the new market. SNDA is between them.

SNDA is very radical but SNDA is steady. From the plan, SNDA will construct one platform for On-line Games. The platform is based on Content, Community and other products. SNDA has purchased several companies, that contributes to the service of On-line game.

So I think we shouldn’t criticize SNDA. Everything has positive and passive impact. The business rationality and moral underline can’t be contrary to each other for ever. I think we should learn something from SNDA but not to criticize it, everyone of us, include our parents.


批判盛大不如“见贤思齐”
文/王易见(欢迎翻译和约稿等合作)
QQ 543415188

我记得在某一期的赢在中国中看到谈论商业理性和道德底线的冲突问题，至于故事情节这里就不再叙述，其实，在二者出现冲突的时候其实没必要死心眼儿。今天看了盛大07年第四季度财报，净利润达4010万美元，不免感叹，那些对盛大恨之入骨的家长恐怕又要失望了。不过一个总裁若能管理好一个盛大，那么一个家长按照管理盛大的大体思路去管理孩子就绰绰有余了。所以，当我们的家长对盛大的游戏忿忿不平时，如果能“见贤思齐”，学习盛大的思想，并以其人之道还治其人之身，这将是对盛大最好的惩罚。

一，学习盛大“未雨绸缪”

3年前，当盛大巨亏五亿的时候，很多人说盛大就要死了，如今，盛大不但没死，反而越活越滋润。盛大亏损的主要原因是开展家庭娱乐战略，我有很多朋友说虽然觉得家庭娱乐这个概念还是太超前，但不得不佩服陈天桥眼光和魄力。

今天看到一篇文章说盛大是利润为王，其实在网游界，和盛大不分伯仲的还有网易，网易的利润也非常高，但网易的丁磊在战略眼光上却不及陈天桥，以致很多人批评网易不过是拥有几十亿现金的守财奴，看不到未来。而盛大的家庭娱乐显然是具备前瞻性眼光的一步棋，因为盛大明白，网游不是长久之计，而盛大要成为常青树，则必须领先于业界发展。

二，学习盛大“创新意识”

头脑风暴有一期谈到过陈天桥，其中软银首席合伙人阎焱和今日资本总裁徐新展开了唇枪舌战，就免费网游对市场的影响做了一番辩论。从当初盛大刚开始实行免费网游到今天，没人能否认这一战略的成功。虽然盛大走到今天，更多人说是幸运，因为盛大每走的一步都如履薄冰。

在07年，盛大的创新还有很多可圈可点的地方，包括收购彭海涛及风云计划，鼓励内部创业的计划等。这些策略都为盛大节约了开支，降低了风险，丰富了产品。这些都堪称经典，其实，大家都注意到盛大似乎每次都能在关键时刻临门一脚，包括当大家对网游行业失去信心的时候，盛大总能唤起资本市场的热情。

三，学习盛大“稳扎稳打”

网游界有三个公司很有特色，一是巨人，一是网易，再一个就是盛大。在旁人看来，巨人很像暴发户，这和史玉柱的个人特色有莫大关系；而网易则太过保守，在互联网界几次尝鲜却被后来者赶超的历史使得丁磊不再愿意第一个去吃螃蟹；盛大不同，盛大介于二者之间。

激进的一方面就不说了，从第一第二点可看出来，盛大也有稳扎稳打的地方，按照陈天桥的意思，一个完整的游戏平台应该基于内容，社区等统一的产品线。这里我们又联系到盛大收购数位红，起点中文等看似不相关的网站，都能为其游戏平台甚至是家庭娱乐的构建服务。

所以，我个人觉得没必要对盛大嗤之以鼻，包括那些痛恨网游的家长们，任何一件事物都是有正反两面的，就看你个人如何看了，商业理性和道德底线之间也不一定完全冲突，就像有人玩游戏是为了研究如何做游戏一样。总之，我觉得批判盛大不如“见贤思齐”，盛大的成功经验，对每个人包括家长来说也适合。

This is one fantastic place