The internet is a copy machine. At its most foundational level, it copies every action, every character, every thought we make while we ride upon it. In order to send a message from one corner of the internet to another, the protocols of communication demand that the whole message be copied along the way several times. IT companies make a lot of money selling equipment that facilitates this ceaseless copying. Every bit of data ever produced on any computer is copied somewhere. The digital economy is thus run on a river of copies. Unlike the mass-produced reproductions of the machine age, these copies are not just cheap, they are free.
Our digital communication network has been engineered so that copies flow with as little friction as possible. Indeed, copies flow so freely we could think of the internet as a super-distribution system, where once a copy is introduced it will continue to flow through the network forever, much like electricity in a superconductive wire. We see evidence of this in real life. Once anything that can be copied is brought into contact with internet, it will be copied, and those copies never leave. Even a dog knows you can't erase something once its flowed on the internet.
This super-distribution system has become the foundation of our economy and wealth. The instant reduplication of data, ideas, and media underpins all the major economic sectors in our economy, particularly those involved with exports -- that is, those industries where the US has a competitive advantage. Our wealth sits upon a very large device that copies promiscuously and constantly.
Yet the previous round of wealth in this economy was built on selling precious copies, so the free flow of free copies tends to undermine the established order. If reproductions of our best efforts are free, how can we keep going? To put it simply, how does one make money selling free copies?
I have an answer. The simplest way I can put it is thus:
When copies are super abundant, they become worthless.
When copies are super abundant, stuff which can't be copied becomes scarce and valuable.
When copies are free, you need to sell things which can not be copied.
Well, what can't be copied?
There are a number of qualities that can't be copied. Consider "trust." Trust cannot be copied. You can't purchase it. Trust must be earned, over time. It cannot be downloaded. Or faked. Or counterfeited (at least for long). If everything else is equal, you'll always prefer to deal with someone you can trust. So trust is an intangible that has increasing value in a copy saturated world.
There are a number of other qualities similar to trust that are difficult to copy, and thus become valuable in this network economy. I think the best way to examine them is not from the eye of the producer, manufacturer, or creator, but from the eye of the user. We can start with a simple user question: why would we ever pay for anything that we could get for free? When anyone buys a version of something they could get for free, what are they purchasing?
From my study of the network economy I see roughly eight categories of intangible value that we buy when we pay for something that could be free.
In a real sense, these are eight things that are better than free. Eight uncopyable values. I call them "generatives." A generative value is a quality or attribute that must be generated, grown, cultivated, nurtured. A generative thing can not be copied, cloned, faked, replicated, counterfeited, or reproduced. It is generated uniquely, in place, over time. In the digital arena, generative qualities add value to free copies, and therefore are something that can be sold.
Eight Generatives Better Than Free
Immediacy -- Sooner or later you can find a free copy of whatever you want, but getting a copy delivered to your inbox the moment it is released -- or even better, produced -- by its creators is a generative asset. Many people go to movie theaters to see films on the opening night, where they will pay a hefty price to see a film that later will be available for free, or almost free, via rental or download. Hardcover books command a premium for their immediacy, disguised as a harder cover. First in line often commands an extra price for the same good. As a sellable quality, immediacy has many levels, including access to beta versions. Fans are brought into the generative process itself. Beta versions are often de-valued because they are incomplete, but they also possess generative qualities that can be sold. Immediacy is a relative term, which is why it is generative. It has to fit with the product and the audience. A blog has a different sense of time than a movie, or a car. But immediacy can be found in any media.
Personalization -- A generic version of a concert recording may be free, but if you want a copy that has been tweaked to sound perfect in your particular living room -- as if it were preformed in your room -- you may be willing to pay a lot. The free copy of a book can be custom edited by the publishers to reflect your own previous reading background. A free movie you buy may be cut to reflect the rating you desire (no violence, dirty language okay). Aspirin is free, but aspirin tailored to your DNA is very expensive. As many have noted, personalization requires an ongoing conversation between the creator and consumer, artist and fan, producer and user. It is deeply generative because it is iterative and time consuming. You can't copy the personalization that a relationship represents. Marketers call that "stickiness" because it means both sides of the relationship are stuck (invested) in this generative asset, and will be reluctant to switch and start over.
Interpretation -- As the old joke goes: software, free. The manual, $10,000. But it's no joke. A couple of high profile companies, like Red Hat, Apache, and others make their living doing exactly that. They provide paid support for free software. The copy of code, being mere bits, is free -- and becomes valuable to you only through the support and guidance. I suspect a lot of genetic information will go this route. Right now getting your copy of your DNA is very expensive, but soon it won't be. In fact, soon pharmaceutical companies will PAY you to get your genes sequence. So the copy of your sequence will be free, but the interpretation of what it means, what you can do about it, and how to use it -- the manual for your genes so to speak -- will be expensive.
Authenticity -- You might be able to grab a key software application for free, but even if you don't need a manual, you might like to be sure it is bug free, reliable, and warranted. You'll pay for authenticity. There are nearly an infinite number of variations of the Grateful Dead jams around; buying an authentic version from the band itself will ensure you get the one you wanted. Or that it was indeed actually performed by the Dead. Artists have dealt with this problem for a long time. Graphic reproductions such as photographs and lithographs often come with the artist's stamp of authenticity -- a signature -- to raise the price of the copy. Digital watermarks and other signature technology will not work as copy-protection schemes (copies are super-conducting liquids, remember?) but they can serve up the generative quality of authenticity for those who care.
Accessibility -- Ownership often sucks. You have to keep your things tidy, up-to-date, and in the case of digital material, backed up. And in this mobile world, you have to carry it along with you. Many people, me included, will be happy to have others tend our "possessions" by subscribing to them. We'll pay Acme Digital Warehouse to serve us any musical tune in the world, when and where we want it, as well as any movie, photo (ours or other photographers). Ditto for books and blogs. Acme backs everything up, pays the creators, and delivers us our desires. We can sip it from our phones, PDAs, laptops, big screens from where-ever. The fact that most of this material will be available free, if we want to tend it, back it up, keep adding to it, and organize it, will be less and less appealing as time goes on.
Embodiment -- At its core the digital copy is without a body. You can take a free copy of a work and throw it on a screen. But perhaps you'd like to see it in hi-res on a huge screen? Maybe in 3D? PDFs are fine, but sometimes it is delicious to have the same words printed on bright white cottony paper, bound in leather. Feels so good. What about dwelling in your favorite (free) game with 35 others in the same room? There is no end to greater embodiment. Sure, the hi-res of today -- which may draw ticket holders to a big theater -- may migrate to your home theater tomorrow, but there will always be new insanely great display technology that consumers won't have. Laser projection, holographic display, the holodeck itself! And nothing gets embodied as much as music in a live performance, with real bodies. The music is free; the bodily performance expensive. This formula is quickly becoming a common one for not only musicians, but even authors. The book is free; the bodily talk is expensive.
Patronage -- It is my belief that audiences WANT to pay creators. Fans like to reward artists, musicians, authors and the like with the tokens of their appreciation, because it allows them to connect. But they will only pay if it is very easy to do, a reasonable amount, and they feel certain the money will directly benefit the creators. Radiohead's recent high-profile experiment in letting fans pay them whatever they wished for a free copy is an excellent illustration of the power of patronage. The elusive, intangible connection that flows between appreciative fans and the artist is worth something. In Radiohead's case it was about $5 per download. There are many other examples of the audience paying simply because it feels good.
Findability -- Where as the previous generative qualities reside within creative digital works, findability is an asset that occurs at a higher level in the aggregate of many works. A zero price does not help direct attention to a work, and in fact may sometimes hinder it. But no matter what its price, a work has no value unless it is seen; unfound masterpieces are worthless. When there are millions of books, millions of songs, millions of films, millions of applications, millions of everything requesting our attention -- and most of it free -- being found is valuable.
The giant aggregators such as Amazon and Netflix make their living in part by helping the audience find works they love. They bring out the good news of the "long tail" phenomenon, which we all know, connects niche audiences with niche productions. But sadly, the long tail is only good news for the giant aggregators, and larger mid-level aggregators such as publishers, studios, and labels. The "long tail" is only lukewarm news to creators themselves. But since findability can really only happen at the systems level, creators need aggregators. This is why publishers, studios, and labels (PSL)will never disappear. They are not needed for distribution of the copies (the internet machine does that). Rather the PSL are needed for the distribution of the users' attention back to the works. From an ocean of possibilities the PSL find, nurture and refine the work of creators that they believe fans will connect with. Other intermediates such as critics and reviewers also channel attention. Fans rely on this multi-level apparatus of findability to discover the works of worth out of the zillions produced. There is money to be made (indirectly for the creatives) by finding talent. For many years the paper publication TV Guide made more money than all of the 3 major TV networks it "guided" combined. The magazine guided and pointed viewers to the good stuff on the tube that week. Stuff, it is worth noting, that was free to the viewers. There is little doubt that besides the mega-aggregators, in the world of the free many PDLs will make money selling findability -- in addition to the other generative qualities.
These eight qualities require a new skill set. Success in the free-copy world is not derived from the skills of distribution since the Great Copy Machine in the Sky takes care of that. Nor are legal skills surrounding Intellectual Property and Copyright very useful anymore. Nor are the skills of hoarding and scarcity. Rather, these new eight generatives demand an understanding of how abundance breeds a sharing mindset, how generosity is a business model, how vital it has become to cultivate and nurture qualities that can't be replicated with a click of the mouse.
In short, the money in this networked economy does not follow the path of the copies. Rather it follows the path of attention, and attention has its own circuits.
Careful readers will note one conspicuous absence so far. I have said nothing about advertising. Ads are widely regarded as the solution, almost the ONLY solution, to the paradox of the free. Most of the suggested solutions I've seen for overcoming the free involve some measure of advertising. I think ads are only one of the paths that attention takes, and in the long-run, they will only be part of the new ways money is made selling the free.
But that's another story.
Beneath the frothy layer of advertising, these eight generatives will supply the value to ubiquitous free copies, and make them worth advertising for. These generatives apply to all digital copies, but also to any kind of copy where the marginal cost of that copy approaches zero. (See my essay on Technology Wants to Be Free.) Even material industries are finding that the costs of duplication near zero, so they too will behave like digital copies. Maps just crossed that threshold. Genetics is about to. Gadgets and small appliances (like cell phones) are sliding that way. Pharmaceuticals are already there, but they don't want anyone to know. It costs nothing to make a pill. We pay for Authenticity and Immediacy in drugs. Someday we'll pay for Personalization.
Maintaining generatives is a lot harder than duplicating copies in a factory. There is still a lot to learn. A lot to figure out. Write to me if you do.
互联网就是一台拷贝机。在它的最基层,它拷贝我们上网时产生的每个动作、每个字符、每个想法。为了在互联网上由此及彼地传递信息,通信协议要求整条信息在传送路途中被拷贝数次。IT公司从销售促成这种无休止地拷贝的设备中赚了大钱。任何一台计算机上产生的每个比特(bit)数据都会在某地被拷贝。因此,数字经济正如流淌在拷贝的河流里。与机器时代的大批量复制不同,这些拷贝要便宜得多,它们是免费的。
我们的数字通信网络被打造成让拷贝流尽量畅通无阻。实际上,拷贝流的自由流动让我们可以把互联网想像成一个超级的配送系统,一旦产生了一个拷贝,它将永远在网络中流动,就像超导导线中的电流。现实生活中我们已经能看到证据,一旦任何能被拷贝的东西被放到互联网上,它就会被拷贝,而且那些拷贝永远不会消失。即使一条狗也知道,你无法铲除互联网上的东西。
这个超级配送系统已经成为我们的经济和财富的基础。对数据、想法和媒体的即时复制支撑着所有主要的经济门类,尤其是那些与出口相关的,即美国拥有竞争优势的产业。我们的财富坐落在一台大规模、不间断地进行拷贝的设施上。
起先,这种经济体系中财富的获取来自于销售宝贵的拷贝,因此免费拷贝的自由流动会逐渐破坏既定的秩序。如果复制我们最好的努力成果都不花分毫,我们如何能持续下去呢?简单地说,一个人怎么能通过销售免费拷贝来赚钱?
我有一个答案,用简单的话说就是:
当拷贝极大丰富的时候,它们就一钱不值了。
当拷贝极大丰富的时候,没法被拷贝的东西就变得稀缺和值钱。
当拷贝是免费的时候,你得卖不能被拷贝的东西才行。
那什么是不能被拷贝的?
有几样特质是不能被拷贝的。想想“信任”。信任不能被拷贝,你也买不到。信任必须通过时间来赢得。它下载不到,也不能被伪造,被仿冒(起码干不长)。如果所有别的条件都是同等的,你总是愿意和你信得过的人做生意。所以“信任”在一个拷贝泛滥的世界里是增值的无形资产。
还有几种类似于信任的特质是难以拷贝的,因此在网络经济中很有价值。我想检验它们的最好办法是不要从生产者的角度看,而是从用户的角度来看。我们可以从用户提出的一个简单问题入手:我们为什么要花钱买可以免费得到的东西?当有人买一件本可以免费得到的东西时,他们究竟买了什么?
按照我对网络经济的研究,我发现大致有8个范畴的无形价值能让我们掏钱买本来可以免费得到的东西。
千真万确,有8种东西比免费更好。8种无法拷贝的价值。我把它们称为“生财要素”(generative)。生财要素就是一种需要被产生、成长、培养与呵护的特质或属性。生财要素不能被拷贝、克隆、伪造、复制、仿冒或再造。它是在适当的位置,经过时间积淀而唯一生成的。在数字竞技场上,生财要素为免费拷贝增添了价值,因而成为能卖钱的东西。
8个比免费更好的生财要素
即时享用 ── 无论你想要什么,迟早你都会得到免费拷贝。但是它一旦被发布,或者更进一步,刚被其制造者生产出来的瞬间就放到你的收件箱里,就成了一个生财之道。很多人在首映日到电影院去看电影,他们肯花一大笔钱去看今后能通过出租或者下载而免费或近乎免费地看到的电影。精装书贵是因为它的即时性,而不是因为硬书壳。同样商品中排在头位的经常会有溢价。作为一种可销售的特质,即时享用有多种层次,包括能获得beta版。“粉丝”(fans)被带到生成过程本身之中。Beta版通常不值钱,因为是还没完成的产品,但它同时也有能被销售的生财要素。即时享用是相对而言的,这是其成为生财要素的原因。它必须切合产品和用户。Blog和电影或汽车比起来时间感是不同的,但即时性在所有媒体中都能找到。
个性定制 ── 一份普通的演唱会录音可能是免费的,但如果你想要一份根据你的客厅而调校出来的完美拷贝,听起来就像在你的房间里演奏一样,你可能愿意出大价钱。一本书的免费拷贝可以被出版商定制以反映你过往的阅读背景。你买的一部免费的电影可以按你需要的分类级别剪辑(无暴力镜头,可以讲脏话)。阿司匹林是免费的,但按照你的DNA定制的阿司匹林会非常昂贵。正如很多人注意到,个性定制要求创作者和消费者之间、艺员和粉丝之间、生产商和用户之间的持续沟通。这是一个很深入的生财因素,因为它是循环往复的,还很花时间。你无法拷贝由关系代表的个性化。市场营销人员称之为“粘性”,因为这意味着关系的双方被粘在(投资于)这一生财因素之中,不情愿发生变化和重新来过。
专业解读 ── 就像一个老笑话说的:软件,免费;手册,$10,000。但这不是笑话。有些知名公司,如 Red Hat,Apache 等,就是这么赚钱的。它们为免费软件提供收费服务。代码的拷贝,仅仅是比特数据,是免费的,而且只有通过技术支持和指导才对你有价值。我怀疑许多遗传(genetic)信息是由这种途径传递的。目前获得你自己的DNA拷贝会非常昂贵,但很快就不是这样了。事实上,不久制药公司将给你钱来得到你的基因序列。因而你的基因序列的拷贝将是免费的,但对其含义的解读、知道能对它做些什么、知道如何应用它,也就是说你的基因的操作手册,将是昂贵的。
权威认证 ── 你或许能免费获得一份关键的应用软件,但即使你不需要操作手册,你也可能需要确认它是没有编程错误的、可靠的、有保证的。你会愿意为认证付费。我们身边有近乎无数的Grateful Dead乐队风格的变种,从这个乐队自身处买一个权威版本将确保你得到你想要的东西,或保证是该乐队演唱的。艺术家们早就为解决这个问题头疼了很久。照片和版画这类图片在复制时,常常会有艺术家的印章(签名)来保证权威性并提升其价格。数码水印和其他的签名技术将无法作为防止拷贝的措施(记得吗,拷贝就像超导流体?),但在对其在意的人那里,它们能提升权威性这一生财因素。
触手可得 ── 所有权是麻烦事。你需要保持你的东西整洁、持续更新,对数码材料还要备份。在这个流动的世界里,你还得一直带着它们。很多人,包括我,很乐意用订阅方式让别人来照管这些东西。我们愿意付钱给Acme Digital Warehouse,让它照管音乐、电影或照片(我们自己的或其他摄影者的)。同理适用于书和blog。Acme备份每份东西,付钱给创作者,并按我们的需要提供给我们。我们用电话、PDA、手提电脑或大屏幕设备随处访问到这些内容。相比于我们自己照料、备份、添加、组织这些内容(的麻烦),随着时光流逝,能够免费获得大部分内容这件事会变得越来越没有吸引力。
虚拟成真 ── 数码拷贝的核心是没有实体。你可以得到一件作品的免费拷贝并显示在屏幕上。但也许你更想在大屏幕上看高分辨率的版本,也许还想要3D?PDF文件很好,但有时将同样的内容印在雪白的纸上、用皮面装订起来就更美妙了。这种感觉真好。与35个其他人一起在你最喜欢的免费游戏中同处一室又是什么感觉?在虚拟成真方面能做的几乎没有尽头。确实,对今天来说的高分辨率尽管还能吸引人买票去大剧院观赏,可能明天就能移植到家庭影院,但总会有新的、好得离谱的显示技术是一般消费者不能拥有的,比如说激光投影、全息显示,甚至Star Trek里面模拟舱(holodesk)!任何事情的虚拟成真都比不上音乐由真人进行的现场演奏。音乐是免费的,真人演奏却很贵。这种模式很快就成为普遍性的,不光对音乐家,作家也是如此。书是免费的,但真人朗诵是昂贵的。
慷慨解囊 ── 我相信观众愿意付钱给创作者。粉丝喜欢给艺术家、音乐家、作家等回报来表示他们的赞许,因为这允许他们联系在一起。但只有在付款非常容易、定价合理以及他们确信钱会直接让创作者获利的时候,他们才会解囊。Radiohead乐队最近那个引人注目的让粉丝们愿意给多少都行的试验,很好地显示了资助的力量。那种粉丝与他们所欣赏的艺术家之间微妙的、无形的联系是物有所值的。Radiohead的事例中每次下载的付费是$5。还有很多观众仅仅出于感觉良好而付钱的其他例子。
脱颖而出 ── 上面的那些生财要素都是有关于创造性的数字作品的,而“脱颖而出”属于由许多作品积累起来的更高层次。把一件作品定价为零无助于吸引到直接的注意,而且实际上还可能产生反效果。然而,不管定价如何,如果人们看不到,作品就毫无价值。没被发现的杰作一钱不值。市面上有数以百万计的书籍、歌曲、应用软件等等,大多数是免费的,都想吸引我们的注意力。因而,能被人发现是有价值的。
Amazon和Netflix这种巨型聚合商(aggregator)靠的就是帮助用户找到他们喜爱的作品而赚钱。他们给“长尾”现象带来福音,把利基用户和利基产品联系到一起。但不幸的是,长尾只对于巨型聚合商以及更大的中层聚合商,比如出版商、制片商和唱片公司才有好处。长尾对于创作者自身无关痛痒。但由于“脱颖而出”只能在系统层面上才真正起作用,创作者离不开聚合商。这就是为什么出版商、制片商和唱片公司(合称PSL)不会消亡的原因。它们的存在不是需要用它们来传播拷贝(互联网会做这件事),而是需要通过它们把用户的注意力传回到作品上。它们在无穷的可能性当中发现、培育、精炼出那些它们认为会被粉丝们接受的创作者的作品。其他的媒介,比如批评家和评论家,也能引导注意力。粉丝们依靠这些多层次的发掘工具从无数作品中找到有价值的作品。发现天才就是生财之道。许多年来,在纸上印刷发行的《电视指南》赚的钱比它所“指南”的3大电视网加起来还要多。这份杂志把观众引导到每周的精彩节目上。节目仅靠免费对观众并没有价值。很少有人怀疑,除了那些巨型聚合商,许多PSL也能在这个免费的世界里通过销售“脱颖而出”的机会,结合其他的生财要素而赚钱有道。
上述8种特性要求一套全新的商业技能。在免费拷贝的世界里无法靠沿用分销技能而取得成功,因为天幕之下的巨大拷贝机(互联网)已经能做到了。有关知识产权和版权的法律技能快没有用武之地了。囤积居奇也不管用了。这8大生财要素要求人们理解到产品的丰富如何催生了共享的精神状态,慷慨大方如何成为商业模式,培养和哺育无法通过点击一下鼠标就能复制的商业要素有多么重要。
简单地说,在网络经济中钱不会跟着拷贝走,而是跟着注意力走。注意力有自己的路径。
细心的读者会注意到一个明显的遗漏。我一直没有提到广告。广告被广泛认为是对付免费困境的近乎唯一的解决方案。我见到的大多数对付免费的方案都会多少涉及到广告。我认为广告只是注意力会走的途径之一,长期看来,广告只是通过销售免费产品赚钱的新方式的一部分。
但那是另一个故事了。
在广告的空洞表层之下,上述8大生财要素能给无所不在的免费拷贝增添价值,使它们值得被做广告。这些生财要素适合所有数字拷贝,也适合那些拷贝的边际成本近乎零的所有产品(参见我 Technology Wants to Be Free 一文)。甚至生产实体产品的行业也发现复制成本趋向于零,所以它们也会像数字拷贝那样行事。地图刚刚跨过了这道门槛,基因图谱也快了。小型数码设备、小电器(如手机)也正走向这个方向。制药业早就如此,但他们不想让人知道,生产一颗药丸几乎不花钱。在药品上,我们是为权威认证和即时享用付钱。终有一天,我们会为个性定制付钱。
维护生财要素比在工厂里复制产品要难得多,还有很多东西要学,要理解。欢迎把你的感悟告诉我。
译注:本文翻译得到作者Kevin Kelly的许可。作者特别指出,文章的构想最早见于其著作 New Rules for the New Economy(中译本《网络经济的十种策略》,广州出版社,ISBN 7-80655-115-8)。
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