China's Economic Trouble May Just Be Beginning

If you follow the financial media, especially the output of dollar-phobe analysts, you might think that \\\\\\\"Pork problems perturbing Peking\\\\\\\" is the worst concern China is dealing with right now. But rising prices for moo-shoo pork due to increasing middle-class appetites and upticks in inflation may be the least concern to Beijing.

China\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\'s economic meltdown, which I predicted to start after the Olympics this summer, may have already begun. While analysts are sticking to their guns that the American Century is over and Asia a whole new kettle of koi, it looks like the Chinese economy is about to catch a heck of a cold as America\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\'s consumers sniffle.

Light export industries are experiencing massive losses. Growth in China\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\'s textile industry production in January and February 2008 came in at just 5.7 percent, compared to last year\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\'s 19 percent. That\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\'s the slowest growth rate since 2003. Guangdong\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\'s industry was hit by a whopping 11.3 percent drop in output, with textile output falling an incredible 32.9 percent -- due in part to February\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\'s massive snowstorms, but mostly to weakening demand from the US and Europe.

Reportedly, almost half the companies in 17 Chinese provinces are considering shutting down, and 44 percent were trying to sell export-oriented products on the domestic market. Almost 10 percent of the 60,000-70,000 Hong Kong-owned factories in Guangdong\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\'s Pearl River Delta will close in 2008 due to revenue and cost pressures. In Guangdong, the shoemaking industry laid off between 150,000 and 200,000 workers and cut roughly 15 percent of production capacity.

Companies are shedding jobs and outsourcing either abroad or to low-wage regions of China. The dollar has fallen 14 percent against the Chinese currency since 2005. Each percentage point increase in the yuan means a half a percentage point loss in a company\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\'s foreign exchange earnings. Soaring energy and commodities cost, rising wages and much-touted green policies, are forcing employers to shift production to poorer regions of China, as well as to Pakistan, India, Vietnam, and Myanmar.

Maybe Beijing\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\'s one trillion dollars in foreign currency reserves may come in handy as China\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\'s export cash flow start drying up by the fall. There may be some great investment opportunities left in the short term for China -- especially travel-related companies pandering to patriotic Chinese happy to fill the bleachers left empty by Olympia protesters.

Watch for the numbers to become better popularized after the Olympic Games this summer. And get ready for the second, far more powerful wave of economic calamity as the Chinese economy belly flops.

中国经济的困局可能才刚刚开始

如果你留意财经新闻，特别是那些美元恐惧症分析者的报道，你或许会认为“猪肉问题困扰北京”是中国目前面临的最大忧虑。但是肉价的上涨归因于中产阶级不断增长的需求，通胀率的上升可能是并非北京所担心的。

中国经济的崩溃，我曾预言将于今年夏季奥运会之后发生，可能业已开始。而分析者们仍然坚称美国的世纪已经结束，亚洲的新纪元即将开始，看上去好像中国经济将要患上一场重感冒如同美国消费者的鼻塞一样。

出口型的轻工业正遭受巨大损失。中国纺织业2008年1月和2月的产品增加值仅仅上涨了5.7%，与此相比的是去年增幅达9%。这是自2003年以来的最低增幅。广东的工业产出下降了11.3个百分点，其中纺织业产出难以置信地下降了32.9个百分点，这部分归因于二月份的那场巨大雪灾，但主要是由于美国和欧洲需求的减弱。

据报道，17个省的近半数公司考虑停产，44%的公司试图将本打算出口的产品在国内市场销售。珠江三角洲地区的6万--7万家港资企业中的10%因为收益和成本压力将于2008年关闭。在广东，制鞋业解雇了15万--20万工人并消减了近15%的产能。

企业减少工作岗位并且到国外或中国低工资水平地区雇佣合同工。从2005年开始，美元对人民币贬值了14%。人民币每上升一个百分点就意味着一家公司外汇收入减少0.5个百分点。居高不下的能源和日用消费品成本，上升的工资水平和环保政策，迫使雇主将生产活动迁移到中国更穷的地区，甚至巴基斯坦、印度、越南和缅甸。

或许北京一万亿美元的外汇贮备能够应付从秋季开始的出口现金流的枯竭。在短期内中国有大量投资机会——特别是旅游公司怂恿那些爱国的中国人去塞满奥运抗议者留下的空空如也的露天看台。

等着瞧瞧奥运会后经济数据更好的宣传吧。并且准备好接受另外一件事，来自于中国经济轰然倒塌的更大经济灾难。

【译者注：文后的评论更有趣，特附上，另外看完本文比较冲动欲骂人者请移步，至少请说出个一二三来】

djr Apr 21 11:38 AM

 "Reportedly, almost half the companies in 17 Chinese provinces are considering shutting down, and 44 percent were trying to sell export-oriented products on the domestic market." What is your source for this information? It sounds sensationalistic to me!

CrossingtheT Apr 21 12:52 PM

Well, if China is collapsing, why does the Baltic Dry Index rise every day?

chinesepetti Apr 21 01:22 PM

According to German government the unemployment rate is still about 10% and there are almost a million german are working in China at the moment.

chinesepetti Apr 21 01:27 PM

"If you follow the financial media....." That is how Mr Amberger makes his living....recycling and whining . Go read out your shameful German Hitler history before you even dare to start! Mr Media Follower!

chinesepetti Apr 21 01:27 PM

"If you follow the financial media....." That is how Mr Amberger makes his living....recycling and whining . Go read out your shameful German Hitler history before you even dare to start! Mr Media Follower!

User 142738 Apr 21 02:03 PM

chinesepetti: Read up on Godwin's law... "There is an unwritten rule on the Internet that, once an irrelevant comment is made, the thread in which the comment was posted is over and whoever mentioned the Nazi party or Hitler has automatically lost whatever debate was in progress." It's nice to know that you're so nationalistic that you believe reductio ad Hitlerum is logical.

longshort Apr 21 02:30 PM

To chinesepetti, I am really shocked by what you said. Give us the logic and reasoning, not the screaming. I believe the extreme nationalism would be the dirty source of Hitler

CrossingtheT Apr 21 02:46 PM

Hats off to you, User 142738 and longshort!

chinesepetti Apr 21 09:14 PM

If you follow the financial media....." That is how Mr Amberger makes his living....recycling and whining . Go read out your shameful German Hitler history before you even dare to start! Mr Media Follower

lanaar2 Apr 21 11:06 PM

My Website Last time Amberger wrote on China's doom it was about the next emerging housing collapse to take place in Asia due to non performing loans. I mean, this article has nothing to do with his last one. He seems to be throwing ideas here and there... The EU started lifting import quotas from China in begining 2008, this has lifted chinese exports: www.reuters.com/article/gc07/idUSL20080123

john2 Apr 21 11:29 PM

My Website

if you keep on insulting the writers of these articles with little to no other purpose you will get your account suspended. chinesepetti

User 143167 Apr 21 11:53 PM

My Website China will have its fair share of problem in this global downcycle, nothing more, nothing less. But unlike the perma-bulls who keeps the US stocks afloat under the illusion that "loose monetary policy can cure all", this downside risk in China has been largely reflected in its currently sharp dropping stock prices. For some of you who really believe that Chinese economy is falling apart, you should sell every stocks you own so far. NOTHING is a buy in that scenario, US stocks, EMs, bonds, Commodities, etc and etc, you name it.

J.D Apr 22 04:20 AM

SCMP coverage is filled today with news of a major land protest in Yunnan, re-education campaign in Tibet, and torture of an inner Mongolian bookshop owner. It's not just economic stability China needs to be concerned with at the moment. What has happened to the harmonious society?

chinesepetti Apr 22 04:45 AM

Stop occuopation In Iraq! Stop Now! Shame on You!

chinesepetti Apr 22 04:50 AM

Stop occupation in Iraq Now before you invest your money in China; Chinese do not want your bloody money! Otherwise keep your money to save Bear Stearns and Mr Petti!

CrossingtheT Apr 22 06:04 AM

Wow, quite a Boxer Rebellion going on here. THE GERMANS TO THE FRONT!!! haha! Chinesepetti, you are so ridiculous!

nickgogerty Apr 22 09:22 AM

My Website The countryside could determine the pace and nature of change. nickgogerty.typepad.com/designing_better...

rlirph Apr 22 09:31 AM

Clearly some posters are reacting unreasonably. While some people sensationalize news headlines and make them more importantly than they appear, the following is quoted from a major Chinese newspaper (Southern City Daily News). They have just concluded the first part of Canton Fair and orders from the US this year is 0.4% less than last year. It is 0.4% less, not 4% or 40% less. However the European Union countries have now become the number 1 importer of Chinese goods, followed by the Middle East countries. While China is facing a slower US economy it has made up the pace with EU and other countries. Historically China has averaged a 9.6% GDP growth in the past 26 years. Frankly even with numerous economic and social challenges I do not see China going to be in any economic distress.

Koala242 Apr 22 09:43 AM

This guy is a real Red Guard of Chinese cultural revolution. He lets you you experience what cultural revolution in China was like. Keep it up Chinesepetti, you are a disgrace to all Chinese.

sherwin Apr 22 10:58 AM

with 1.3 billion people and good savings averages, the Chinese growth engine will continue chugging on, despite some bumps and stops every now and then... some people just suffer from huge China-envy...

longshort Apr 22 04:10 PM

Chinesepetti, if you are trying to help Chinese, please do not do like this.

longshort Apr 22 04:15 PM

As to GDP growth in China, it is really easy to get double digits if you look back the the growth equation and have the ideas about the second generation of baby boomers in China. But the growth could not be such imbalanced one. The allocation of wealth is not fair, even it supports the higher saving ratio. So the risk is not purely about economy but the mixture of sudden economic and politic disasters.

Colin Chen Apr 22 09:34 PM

My Website

HAHAHA nice one chinesepetti, lets beat back the hun's. Your clever insights are what makes this site worth reading. (*sarcasm*) In anycase, the EU is China's largest trading partner, and the increased export to EU from the overvaluation of the euro should some what offset the slowing demand from the US caused by the drop in the dollar. The drop in light manufacturing and textiles are to be expected as beijing has in recent years abandoned the cultivation of those industries in place of more sophisticated industries. A rise in unemployment combined with a growing inflation rate is troubling however. What worries me the most is huge amount of cash moving to Hong Kong in red chips and H-shares. Is there another chinese speculation bubble this soon?

sherwin Apr 23 12:17 AM

chinesepetti is probably not even Chinese to begin with...be careful of taking the bait