让奥运圣火永燃

Two ways to repair China's image: end the torch relay and take a lead over Myanmar

中国想要恢复国际形象，有两个办法：一是结束火炬传递，二是接管指引缅甸

WERE shooting oneself in the foot an Olympic event, China would surely be well placed for a gold. The Beijing 2008 Olympic Torch Relay, taking the flame around the world before the games begin in August, was always a risk. Of course the flame would draw protesters like moths. But the suppression of riots and protests in Tibet has ensured the torch's progress has graduated from minor diplomatic embarrassment to full-scale public-relations disaster (see article).

如果说，搬起石头砸自己的脚也是一项奥运项目，中国无疑将是这个项目的冠军。北京2008年奥运火炬传递活动，在奥运会于8月开幕前将火炬传遍五洲，实在充满风险。毫无疑问，火炬将吸引如娥般的众多抗议者。而中国对西藏发生的暴乱和抗议的镇压则使得火炬传递，从一个次要的外交事件变成一个巨大的公关灾难。

An exercise intended to flaunt the new, outward-looking and confident China has displayed its dark side: nervous, repressive, prickly and stubborn. That stubbornness may rule out the obvious remedy: calling the whole farce off before someone is badly hurt. At least the International Olympic Committee should have nothing more to do with it. Protests this week in London, Paris and San Francisco were ill-tempered enough. The passage through Delhi on April 17th could be uglier. India is home to some 100,000 Tibetans. The only stop on the torch's world tour sure to be trouble-free is Pyongyang. As for its proposed procession through Tibet in June, it is hard to imagine a more provocative or insensitive gesture.

这个本来意在夸耀一个崭新的、外向的、自信的中国的活动，却反过来展示了中国的一些阴暗面：不安，被压制，棘手以及冥顽不化。中国的固执可能会使其看不到显而易见的解决方案：在人们被深深的伤害之前，赶紧把这项闹剧叫停。这样，国际奥委会至少不需要为此承担什么。这一周，在伦敦、巴黎以及旧金山的许多抗议者已经表现的非常暴躁，4月17日火炬来到新德里的情况可能将更加糟糕。要知道，印度可是10万流亡藏民的家乡。朝鲜的平壤将会是圣火全球传递活动中唯一不会受到干扰的一站。当圣火按照规划于6月份来到西藏时，很难想象还有比这更煽情或者说更绝情的仪式了。

 To accuse China's critics of “politicising” a sporting event is nonsense. What has the relay to do with sport? It is not some timeworn practice integral to the games. Rather, the idea of a relay from Greece to the Olympic venue was revived by the Nazis for the 1936 Berlin Olympics, which is hardly a precedent China wants to advertise. The first “global” relay only took place for the most recent Olympics, in Athens in 2004. But that was not such a circus. China's pride may preclude any concession, however face-saving, on Tibet, or on human-rights abuses in general. But it is also facing criticism for its foreign policy—its links with the governments of Sudan and Myanmar in particular. Here, in theory, it can do something to show that it is indeed a responsible international “stakeholder”, with diplomatic maturity as well as economic clout.

反击中国所言的将一个体育赛事政治化的评论是毫无意义的。圣火传递与体育到底有什么关系呢？这不是奥运会原始就具有的一部分。事实上，从希腊到奥运承办地之间的火炬传递这个想法，是纳粹们举办1936年的柏林奥运会时想到的——这可不是中国想要广而告之的先例。而第一个“全球”火炬传递仅仅发生在上届的2004年雅典奥运会，但那次没有像这次一样成为一个闹剧。中国的自尊可能会拒绝一切让步，不管是在西藏问题，还是在人权滥用问题上，他们都讲究保留面子。但中国还面临对其外交政策的指责——特别是其与苏丹以及缅甸政府的关系。现在，从理论上讲，中国终于可以做些事情来证明自己确实是一个负责任的国际大国（风险承担者），拥有与其经济影响一样的成熟外交。

Take Myanmar. After the bloody quelling of the “saffron revolution” last September, the ruling junta threw a few sops to international opinion. It accepted visits from a United Nations envoy, opened talks with the detained opposition leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, and gave a timetable for a political transition. China deserves some credit for forcing the junta's hand. Myanmar's generals are nobody's puppets. But China, with its big commercial interests in the country, and its support in the UN Security Council, is now the junta's best friend.

举缅甸为例。在去年九月份对“桔色革命”进行血腥镇压以后，统治的缅甸军政府开始“贿赂”国际意见。它接纳来自联合国的特使，与被拘留的反对派领导昂山素季开放对话，并且给出了政治变革的时间表。中国应该在迫使统治集团的行动上获得赞赏。缅甸的将军们可不是别人的傀儡，但中国，凭借其在缅甸拥有巨大的的商业利益，以及在联合国安理会上的支持，成为了统治集团现在最好的朋友。

It is time to use that position again. Confident that the outside world's focus on their misdeeds has shifted elsewhere, the generals have stalled on dialogue both with their opponents at home and the UN's envoy. The plight of their country remains desperate . The political “process” has degenerated into a drive to impose a constitution entrenching military rule. A referendum on this solution will be held on May 10th in a climate of vicious intimidation.

（对中国而言，）是时候再次施加这种影响了。要让（缅甸的统治者们）知道，外面的世界对于他们的错误行径的关注已经转移了。缅甸的将军们不仅在拖延与国内的反对派的对话，也在拖延与联合国特使见面。缅甸国内的情况依旧很糟糕。而其政治“进程”已经退化成为一个通过修宪强化军人统治的运动。即将于5月10日举办的缅甸新宪法公投笼罩在一种邪恶的胁迫气氛中。

Members of the Security Council are mulling a new statement, calling for some of the minimum reforms needed for a credible vote—such as the release of opposition leaders, including Miss Suu Kyi. The first thing China can do is to allow the statement to be issued in the name of a united outside world. More than that, China could help resolve the sterile debate that has raged for two decades over “engagement” or “isolation”. Isolation has never worked, because China, India and South-East Asian countries see too much commercial and strategic benefit in links with the junta. But nor has “engagement”, since Western countries have imposed sanctions of varying severity, and the junta has little interest in engaging anyway.

联合国安理会的成员正在制定一个新的声明，号召一个有效的公投所需要的一些细微的改革——比如说，释放包括素季小姐在内的反对派领袖。中国可以做的第一件事情就是，允许这个声明以联合国的名义发布。此外，中国还可以帮助解决已经激烈辩论了20年，至今却毫无结果的关于是要“干预”还是“隔离”缅甸的争论。隔离从来就没有奏效过，因为中国，印度以及众多东南亚国家在缅甸军政府身上看到了太多的商业利益和战略意义。但“干预”也没有什么效果，因为西方国家各自提出了严厉程度不同的施加影响的制裁，但缅甸军政府对此兴趣不大。

Nobody wins gold for sitting on a fence

 一直坐在篱笆上，没有人会获利

Despite this, there is a broad consensus about the need for reform in Myanmar. With anti-Chinese feeling mounting in Myanmar, it is not in China's interests to be perceived as the prop that always holds up a loathed regime. It could take the initiative in forming a contact group to engage the junta in talks on economic co-operation and political reform. Even if it excluded Europe and America, such a group, of China, India, some South-East Asian countries and Japan, could help show the generals that they cannot forever survive in the cracks of other countries' disagreements. And it could help show that China is not always, unequivocally, on the side of the thugs.

不管如何，大众舆论认为，缅甸需要一场改革。随着缅甸反华情绪的高涨，成为一个邪恶政体的支持者不符合中国的利益。中国可以带头组织一个联系组织，与缅甸军政府在经济合作以及政治改革方面进行谈判。即便欧美被排除在这个联系组织之外，中国、印度，一些东南亚国家以及日本，也可以帮助向那些将军们展示他们不可能永远在一片国际反对声中生存。同时，这也将毫无疑问的，有助于展示出中国并不是永远站在暴徒的一边。