Fear that China will push up world inflation after prices rise 7

Fears that China may export inflation to the rest of the world were heightened yesterday when Beijing announced the sharpest rise in the cost of living in 11 years.

With food prices rising rapidly following severe new year storms, the annual inflation rate in the fast-growing developing economy reached 7.1% last month.

Food prices were up 18% on January 2007 as blizzards took 7m hectares of agricultural land out of production and paralysed distribution systems across China.

Beijing released food stocks to ease shortages but was unable to prevent prices from rising sharply. Even before the storms, inflation was steadily increasing in China, up from 2.2% in January 2007. Analysts said further increases were likely over the coming months, putting pressure on the authorities to tighten economic policy.

Deutsche Bank said inflation could hit a peak of 8% for the first quarter, while Lehman Brothers forecast price rises of up to 7.5% in February before the surge ended in March.

Stephen Lewis, economist at Insinger de Beaufort, said there were clear signs that price rises were spreading from food to the rest of the economy, and that this had implications for countries that import Chinese goods. "It is now received wisdom that, over the past decade or so, the expansion of China's international trade acted as a disinflationary influence in importing countries," he said.

"The fear now is that a faster rate of Chinese domestic inflation will be reflected in an upturn in the prices of goods China sells abroad. In short, China will export its inflation to the rest of the world."

Cheap manufactured goods from China have been see as a significant factor in holding down global inflation over the past 15 years, but the need to power an economy growing at 10% a year has led to rising commodity prices. Labour shortages and the demands of a richer population have also led to dearer food and exported goods.

High inflation could complicate Beijing's efforts to keep the fast-growing economy from overheating and add to pressure to let the exchange rate of its currency, the yuan, rise faster. China's economy grew by 11.4% in 2007 and is expected to expand by at least 9% this year.

Surging food costs are a political concern for Chinese leaders because they hit the poor majority hard in a society where families spend up to half their incomes on food. Bouts of high inflation in the 1980s and 1990s led to protests.

物价上涨7%，中国恐引发全球通货膨胀

昨天，当北京公布了11年以来幅度最大的居民消费价格上涨时，中国的通货膨胀会波及其他国家的担忧进一步加深。

随着新年以来的雪灾带来的食品价格的迅速上涨，上个月这个世界上发展最快的经济体的年通货膨胀率达到了7.1%的水平。2008年1月的雪灾导致七百万公顷耕地荒芜和全国范围内物流系统的瘫痪，这使得食品价格猛涨了18%。

为了消除供给不足，北京方面已经发放了食品储备，但是此举仍然没有能够阻止物价的飞速上涨。其实在雪灾之前，中国的通货膨胀率从2007年一月的2.2%一直在逐步的增长。分析师们预测在接下来的几个月中物价将有可能进一步上涨，这进一步给当局采取紧缩经济政策施加了压力。

德意志银行声称在第一季度中国的通货膨胀指数将会达到8%的峰值，而雷曼兄弟则预测价格上涨在2月份会达到7.5%，而最高峰会延续到三月份。