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建议 Environmentalism 2.0
If your image of an environmentalist is an organic fiber-wearing vegan who likes to tout the health benefits of hemp tea, Fred Krupp is here to dissuade you. The environmentalists of today — and more importantly, tomorrow — are more likely to be working at a Silicon Valley solar power start-up than saving the whales. Climate change poses a fundamentally different problem, on a far vaster scale, then the local air pollution or wildlife conservation issues that environmentalists have faced before, and it demands a different kind of solution. At the core of that problem is energy, which touches every aspect of modern life, and while the old green virtues of conservation, of simple living, must play a part in our response, the key will be technology. We must invent, develop and implement — on a global scale — low-carbon means of using power. What's required, as Krupp writes in his new book, Earth: The Sequel, is a "second industrial revolution as sweeping as that effected a century ago by the likes of Thomas Edison, Henry Ford and John D. Rockefeller."
Revolutions are never easy, but as Krupp's book shows, the solutions to the climate crisis are out there — and so are the new environmentalists. The longtime president of the Environmental Defense Fund — one of the more centrist and business-friendly green groups — Krupp and his collaborator Miriam Horn traveled the U.S., meeting the scientists, venture capitalists and dreamers inventing new and better ways to use energy. (Listen to Krupp talk about climate policy in the U.S. and a zero-carbon future on Greencast.) That includes characters like the Irish-born Conrad Burke, the charismatic CEO of the young solar company Innovalight; or Alla Weinstein, a Russian immigrant who wants to bring tidal energy to the Pacific Northwest. Touring the best ideas in solar, wind and geothermal power, biofuels, even clean fossil fuels, Krupp does what might seem impossible — he delivers a global warming book that leaves you feeling hopeful. "This is a positive future, a future of abundance," says Krupp. "This is a race that will create new billionaires. It's a huge opportunity for America."
But it's an opportunity that the U.S. will miss if it fails to enact the policies to match its technology. That's the underlying message of Earth: The Sequel: while America has no shortage of would-be environmental entrepreneurs — the same class of people who brought us the Internet and biotech — those solutions won't leave the laboratory without political support. Right now there are countless smart new ways to get energy that won't destroy the Earth, but they're not price competitive with cheap fossil fuel power because they lack economic scale. As solar panels or wind turbines are produced in bulk, the price will fall — but that won't happen until government sends a strong signal to producers and energy consumers. And the only way to do that, Krupp argues, is through a carbon cap-and-trade system that sets an implicit price on dirty fossil fuel, making clean energy instantly more competitive. "You align the economic signals with the imperative that we have to save the planet and ourselves," says Krupp. "When that happens, everything changes."
The idea that new technology can get us out of the climate fix that old technology put us in is an attractive one — especially if we can make a buck while doing so. Venture capitalists invested $3 billion in clean tech in 2007, according to Dow Jones VentureSource, and they'd like a nice return. (But at least the VCs are spending money — federal investment in renewable energy research is a paltry $1 billion, or roughly a day of revenue for Exxon Mobil.) But there's no reason that business can't be a major part of the climate change solution, or that profit isn't concordant with a desire to save the Earth. Krupp writes about Jack Newman, a California surfer and former college dropout who helped found the promising biofuel start up Amyris. The company is working on ways to bioengineer better, cleaner and more efficient biofuels. It's extremely cool stuff, and potentially very profitable, but for Newman this goes beyond the money. "If we're successful, we'll be wealthy, which means we'll be in a position to impact politics," he says. "Part of my agenda has been to create a power base to change the world." As Krupp argues, if we put into place the policies that support the Jack Newmans of the country, they'll take it from there — and Earth may be one place where the sequel is better than the original.
环保 2.0
如果你印象中的环保主义者是一群身着同一服装，喜欢吹捧麻茶对健康重要性的素食主义者，那么Fred Krupp会颠覆你的这种看法。今天的环保主义者，更有可能是在参建一座太阳能电站而不是去拯救鲸鱼；更重要的是，未来的环保主义者会将这一趋势保持下去。对于环保主义者来说，从更广义上来说，相对于区域的空气污染和野生动物资源的保护，气候的变化带来一个全新的问题，所以它也需要一种截然不同的解决方案。（译者注：原文为then the local air…译者认为这是笔误。应为：than the local air…）这个问题的核心在于能源，能源与现代生活的每个方面息息相关，旧环保主义中的环境保护和简化生活成为了我们所必须负担的责任，问题的关键就在于技术。我们必须在全球范围内发现发展和推广低碳排量能源。而即将到来的，正如Krupp先生在《地球：结局》一书中所写的那样：“是将会像一个世纪以前Thomas Edison, Henry Ford 和John D. Rockefeller的所为一样意义深远的二次工业革命。”
革命永远不会那么简单，但是Krupp在他的著作中说，解决气候危机的方案就摆在那里――它是新环保主义者所持的理念。作为环境保护基金（the Environmental Defense Fund）的管理者，一个更中立和更商业化的绿色组织，Krupp和他的合作者Miriam Horn走遍美国，会见科学家，风险投资商和一些有意向发展新的或改进的能源利用方式的人。（在Krupp的关于美国气候政策和未来的零碳排放的谈话中）这些人包括生于爱尔兰的Conrad Burke，魅力非凡的他，是在年轻的太阳能公司Innovalight的CEO；或者是Alla Weinstein，这位俄国移民想利用西北太平洋的潮汐能量。围着在太阳能，风能，地热，生物燃料甚至是清洁的化石燃料打转的Krupp正在做一件看起来完全不可能的事情――他写了一本关于全球变暖的书，但这本书却让你充满希望。“未来是积极而充满机会的”他说，“这是一场早就新的亿万富翁的比赛；是美国的一个巨大的机遇。”
但是，如果美国不制定政策去迎合技术发展的需要，它就会失去这个机遇。《地球：结局》的潜在信息是：美国并不缺少潜在的环境企业家，但这些解决方案需要政府支持才能得到实施。这些环境企业家，将与为我们带来因特网和生物科技的人处于同一阶层。现在并不缺少在保护地球同时又可以获得能源的好方法，但是由于资金缺乏，它们的价格与廉价的化石燃料相比没有什么竞争力。随着太阳能板和风力发电机的大规模装配，价格会下降――但若没有政府向生产者和能源消费者发出一个强烈的信号，这一切不会发生。而其实现的唯一途径就是通过配额贸易系统，该系统可以为产生污染的化石燃料设置一个绝对价格，以使得清洁的燃料更有竞争力。“当拯救这个行星和我们自己的经济信号以命令的形式发出以后，就是一切就会发生逆转。” Krupp说。
新的技术不但可以把我们带出旧技术的圈子，更可以给我们一个崭新的机会：我们可以在做环保的同时发大财。据Dow Jones VentureSource的数据显示，2007年，风险投资商向环保技术方面投资30亿美元，而且回报也不错。（但这毕竟是VC们在投入――联邦在可再生能源研究领域仅仅花了微不足道的10亿美元，这大概就是Exxon Mobil一天的利润而已。）其实气候变化的解决方案完全有条件可以成为一笔大生意，它的利润与拯救地球的期望相比，是完全协调的。Krupp的书中提到了Jack Newman，他是一位加州的弄潮者，大学辍学后，他研究有前途的生物燃料并建立了Amyris公司。该公司致力于用生物工程技术研发出更好，更清洁，更高效的生物燃料。他们使用极其冷门的原料，潜在利润非常可观；但是对于Newman来说，离盈利还有很长的一段路要走。“如果我们能获得成功，我们就会变成富人，这意味着我们我们将会冲击到现有的政策。”如Krupp所论述的，如果我们把支持像Jack Newman这样的人作为一项全国的政策来推行，他们会得到很大的发展――也许地球的结局也会比最初的那个要好得多。
