经济学人智库评论：中日关系

Despite warming relations, rivalry and suspicion persist

关系虽在转暖，敌意和疑虑依旧

China and Japan have issued a joint communiqué emphasising their intention to take a forward-looking and constructive approach to bilateral relations. As a symbol of warming ties between the two countries, the communiqué is significant in its own right, as indeed is the state visit to Japan of China's president, Hu Jintao, during which the joint statement was released. Relations between China and Japan have undoubtedly improved compared with just a few years ago. Yet while both governments recognise the strategic benefits of a stronger friendship, fundamental tensions and areas of strategic rivalry remain.

中日两国发表了一份旨在强调双方致力于建设面向未来的双边关系的联合公报。作为两国关系转暖的标志，在中国国家主席胡锦涛对日本的国事访问期间发表的这份公报意义重大。中日关系同近些年相比，的确有了好转。但尽管两国政府对双边更紧密关系具有的战略意义表示认同，原则上的分歧和战略上的矛盾依然存在。

At one level, Mr Hu's visit and the joint statement he signed with the Japanese prime minister, Yasuo Fukuda, on May 7th are proof positive of the "warm spring" in relations that the two governments have recently claimed is occurring. Mr Hu's visit is the first to Japan by a Chinese head of state since 1998, and would not have been possible without an improvement on the situation that has prevailed for much of the intervening period. Not only was the previous visit to Japan by a Chinese president, Jiang Zemin, a diplomatic disaster (Tokyo took offence when Mr Jiang demanded a stronger Japanese apology for prewar and wartime atrocities in China), but relations between the two countries were also badly strained by Junichiro Koizumi's visits to Yasukuni shrine in Tokyo during his five-year tenure as Japanese prime minister from 2001 to 2006.

从一定层次上讲，胡锦涛主席的出访和于5月7日与福田首相签署的联合公报证明了两国政府近期所谓“中日关系已进入‘暖春’”的表态。胡主席对日访问是1998年来中国国家领导人首次访问日本。这不可能不给长期处在波动期的两国关系带来改善。之所以说波动期，不仅是因为前次江泽民对日访问成了一次外交灾难（当时日方拒绝了江泽民要求日本就其二战前后对华暴行谢罪），还由于小泉纯一郎在2001至2006年的五年首相任期内参拜靖国神社而使两国关系紧张加剧。

The way the joint statement quite deliberately finesses controversial issues could also, in itself, be construed as a sign of progress. For example, although the communiqué does not entirely ignore Japan's history of military aggression in the region, it conspicuously underplays the issue and stresses the desire of both sides to put the past behind them. Thus, China and Japan agree to "face history squarely" (according to a text of the communiqué published by China's Xinhua news agency), but without elaborating. The implicit message is that, while China insists on the right never to forget the violence inflicted on it by Japan—and would take offence at what it perceived to be Japanese efforts to deny responsibility for those atrocities—at the same time China will avoid stirring up the issue if unprovoked. Instead, both sides seem to want to be pragmatic. This is not quite the same as avoiding contentious subjects altogether, but the key aspect of the communiqué is its deliberate attempt to present all issues—even the war—in a context that emphasises the positive rather than the negative. Consequently, it states that China appreciates Japan's postwar efforts to promote peace over more than six decades.

两国在联合公报中巧妙处理争议性问题的方式可以被解读为两国关系有所改进的标志。例如，公报虽然没有完全忽视日本在亚洲地区的侵略史，但对此轻描淡写，强调两国将历史问题暂时搁置的愿望。中日两国同意“正视历史”（据新华社发表的公报文本），却没有详述如何正视。这暗示着，一方面中国决不会忘记被日本蹂躏的历史——如果日本否认侵略不愿负责，中国会很生气——另一方面，中国不会无缘无故地挑起这个话题。其实，双方都表现的很实际。这并不完全的等同于回避争议性话题，联合公报的一个重要特色就是在全面涉及所有问题——即使是战争问题——的同时，强调积极的一面而非消极方面；从而表明，中国对日本在战后60多年来致力和平的努力表示赞赏。

A similar approach is evident in the communiqué's take on other issues. Japan praises China's reforms. Most importantly, the two countries agree not to regard each other as threats. They also pledge to co-operate over the East China Sea (the location of a dispute over territorial claims and the rights to exploit offshore gasfields). Indeed, in a news conference the two leaders claimed to be nearing a solution. The two countries also agree to co-operate in numerous other areas. These include, but are not limited to, food safety, energy, the environment, trade and relations with North Korea.

类似的表达在联合公报中还有体现。日本对中国的改革表示了赞许。最重要的是，中日两国愿意不把对方当作威胁。双方还同意协作解决中国东海问题（东海问题包括领土和海上油气田开发权的争议）。事实上，两位领导人在新闻发布会上表示双方已经快要达成该问题的解决方案。两国还同意在很多问题上展开合作，这包括：食品安全、能源与环境、贸易和朝核问题等。

All this is admirable, and in some respects the fact that Japan and China now claim to be willing to discuss their problems constructively is a welcome sign of a more mature approach to bilateral diplomacy. But the communiqué is as much an aspirational document as it is a reflection of the actual state of relations, and the various issues over which the two countries periodically clash have not suddenly become uncontroversial just because Messrs Hu and Fukuda have signed a joint statement. Japan and China remain strategic rivals in many areas. There is no question, for example, that Japan is worried by China's military build-up and its rise as an economic power. Indeed, an alternative way of interpreting the communiqué is that most of the issues on which the two countries have pledged to co-operate are precisely those where the potential for friction remains the greatest. Energy, the East China Sea, food safety, North Korea and, of course, history all fall into this category. In diplomat-speak, stating that the countries do not regard each other as mutual threats arguably confirms that the opposite is in fact the case.

以上这些均是喜人的。从某种程度上讲，中日两国展开建设性对话是双边外交走向成熟的标志。但是，这份充满希望的公报也反映了两国关系的真实状态。那些两国曾不断为之发生冲突的争议性问题不会因为胡主席和福田首相签署了联合声明而烟消云散。中国和日本在很多领域仍是战略上的竞争对手。例如，日本毋庸置疑的会为中国军事和经济实力的壮大而忧虑。事实上，另一种解读公报的方式是：那些中日表示会展开合作的领域正是最可能产生摩擦的因素。能源问题、东海问题、食品安全问题、朝核问题以及历史问题均是如此。在外交辞令中，两国不会互相敌视的声明说明事实恰恰与之相反。

Even if one admitted that the current improved state of relations between the two countries is more than superficial—which is arguable—there remains a good deal of uncertainty as to how long the "warm spring" will last. Mr Fukuda's hold on power is looking weak, and if he loses his job he could be replaced by a more hawkish prime minister. Meanwhile, underlying Chinese animosity towards Japan may be less visible at the moment only because nationalistic sentiment is preoccupied with France and other Western countries that have been critical of the situation in Tibet. But by allowing Chinese nationalism to flourish, partly to boost its own popular legitimacy, the Chinese Communist Party has also created the conditions for anti-Japanese sentiment to flare up again in the future at the slightest provocation. A warm spring may have arrived for now, but then weather forecasts aren't always reliable.

即使承认现在改善了的双边关系还算名副其实——这尚且值得商榷——“暖春”能持续多久还是个问题。福田首相目前地位不稳。一旦福田下台，他可能会被一个更强硬的鹰派代替。另一方面，现在，由于中国的民族主义情绪还纠结在法国和西方对西藏问题的批评上，中国人的仇日情绪暂时不那么明显。通过任由民族主义滋生，甚至对其行为纵容，中国政府为反日情绪再次由于一点点刺激而爆发创造了条件。“暖春”的确已经到来，可是之后的天气预报可能就不那么可靠了。