The Selective Perception of Human Brains: Why Startups Often Beat The Big Boys

Filed in archive Entrepreneurship by rob on June 29, 2007

You may have seen this picture before. Some see an old woman. Others see a young woman. Psychologists know that they can prime you to see the picture a certain way.

Men willingly believe what they wish. - Julius Caesar.

Companies fall from power. It wasn't long ago that people thought WalMart was going to rule the world. Not long before that, it was Microsoft. These days, everyone is worried about the power of Google. I'm not, because big companies, even great companies. eventually face stiff competition from newcomers, who either oust them, or at least keep them in check.

There are many reasons big companies fail, but the one I want to focus on is selective perception. One of the classic studies in the field of psychology showed fake playing cards to users to see how they responded (a red 5 of spades, for example). Here is what the authors conclude.

Our major conclusion is simply a reaffirmation of the general statement that perceptual organization is powerfully determined by expectations built upon past commerce with the environment. When such expectations are violated by the environment, the perceiver's behavior can be described as resistance to the recognition of the unexpected or incongruous.
Other studies on selective perception and alcohol have shown that expectations are more important than chemistry in determining anxiety levels, and that sports fan honestly don't see many of the infractions committed by their favorite team during a game.

This perception bias can be just as dangerous in the marketplace. Sometimes customer demand changes slowly over time, and companies adapt well. Other times, the change is very incongruous, and in these situations, companies often miss the change. They see what they want to see. They interpret the data in ways that reinforce their existing ideas about the marketplace. That's when startups can step in and capture lots of new customers.

Andy Grove was right when he said that only the paranoid survive. It pays to be paranoid because one of the best ways to guard against selective perception is to worry that it's happening to you, and that your competitors understand something you don't about the market.

If you are the market leader, and want to stay in that position, the best thing you can ask yourself about your market research is what would it take to prove this is wrong? By seeking disconfirming evidence, you will start to free your mind from the man-with-hammer-sees-every-problem-as-a-nail syndrome. If you are a startup, look for a market that is going through changes that the market leaders don't recognize due to their selective perception.

If you want a real world example, look at the new search results page of Ask.com. Both Businessweek and The Wall Street Journal wrote this week about how Ask's search results are displayed better than Google's. Is it the beginning of a change? Does Google have selective perception? Are they too focused on expanding into other forms of advertising instead of improving the user experience of their core product? It's not something I follow closely, but I can tell you that I use Google less than half the time for my searches.

Many pundits will say it is the job of the leader to set the corporate vision. I will add to that and say that a leader must also make sure the vision doesn't become tunnel-vision. Keep your guard up, and don't be afraid to relentlessly question your preconceived notions.

固有观念的影响：初创业者为何以弱胜强？

　　本文归档于2007年6月29日“创业学”分类

　　也许您之前已曾见过这幅画。有些人看出了一名老妇（可将图片正中央的一道斜向弧线视为鼻翼——译者注），有的人则见到一位年轻少女（可将弧线视为左颏——译者注）。心理学家们都知道，他们可以引导您用某种特定的方式去理解这张图片。

　　人们总是倾向于相信如其所愿之事。——凯撒大帝

　　大公司往往意味着统治力。不久以前，人们相信沃尔玛公司(WalMart)将会统治世界。而在此前，很多人则认为微软公司(Microsoft)可能如此。而在最近，大家则又在担心源自谷歌(Google)的统领世界的控制力。但是我不这么看。因为对大公司，甚至是更大的集团而言，最终都会面临来自初创业者的激烈竞争，乃至被或排挤出局、或受制于人。

　　大公司的失败往往有很多原因，但我在此想探讨的关键在于人的固有观念。在心理学领域，有一个典型的研究案例是这样的，研究者给玩牌者出示假冒的扑克牌（譬如红色的黑桃5），以观其反应。以下是作者得到的结论：

　　我们得出的主要结论仅仅是简单地重申了一个众所周知的论断，亦即期望的形成极大地依赖于过去的交易行为以及对现实环境的判断。假如客观环境与自身期望产生冲突时，这个持着固有观念的人常常会拒绝接受或面对现实。

　　基于固有观念与麻醉剂的一些其他研究也表明，在影响决断焦虑的程度上，自身期望比任何化学物质的影响更为重要。事实上，一个体育爱好者在观看比赛时，也往往对自己支持一方的犯规行为置若罔闻。

　　这种固有观念造成的先入为主的偏差，在市场销售方面将具有同等的危险性。一般情况下，市场需求的变化会随着时间的推移逐渐趋于稳定，与此同时公司也将逐渐适应波动。但某些时候，这种波动是微妙莫测、不合情理的，与此同时，已经占据一定市场份额的公司往往会忽视这种改变，他们只见到他们想要见到的相关信息。但是他们还需要分析市场调研的数据，并据此来拓宽他们的市场思路。而这正是初创业者能够参与竞争并占领大批客户的时机。

　　安迪·格鲁夫(Andy Grove, Intel公司前CEO——译者注)认为“唯有偏执狂方可生存(only the paranoid survive)”，此言不假。“偏执狂”之所以能够生存，是因为避免固有观念的最好途径之一，就是时刻担心自己是否将会有事发生，时刻担心你的竞争对手是否已经掌握了你所未知的信息。

　　假如您是一个市场的领头者，也期望能够长期保留在这个职位，您最应当自问的问题是：您的市场调研结果是否有谬误？何以证明它是错的？在寻找反面依据的时候，您也获得一个机会来避免固有的观念与先入为主的思维（即"hammer sees problem as a nail"误区）。假如您是初创业者，那就应当去寻找市场正在经历的波动信息，而这种变化正是那些市场领头者因自身固有观念的局限而未能认识到的。

　　假如您想要听一个活生生的案例的话，那就请看看ask.com网站的新搜索结果显示页面。本周的《商业周刊》(Business week)与《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)都作了报道，说明Ask.com搜索结果的显示是何以优于Google.com的。这是不是就是一个市场波动的开始？Google公司是否也有固有观念？他们是否过于关注拓展各种形式广告市场，而忽略了其核心产品用户体验的改善？这并不是我密切关注得出的结论，但我可以告诉你，我需要用到搜索引擎的时候，使用Google搜索的时间还不到一半。

　　许多专家学者认为，作为一个企业领导者，构想发展宏图才是他们的职责所在。而我认为这还不够。作为一个领导者，还需要确保他的企业发展规划不能是狭隘的、带着偏见的。他也必须时刻保持警惕，永远不要害怕反复去质询自己，是否因先入为主的固有观念而犯了什么错误。