微软入股Facebook会引爆下一代互联网泡沫？
译者: 把眉批拖到这里
Analysts differ on how a Microsoft stake in Facebook might drive the future of social networking.
Though just a rumor at this point, the idea that Microsoft is negotiating to take a 5-percent stake in popular social networking site Facebook has some industry experts anticipating the next Internet bubble.
Ovum Research analyst David Bradshaw said the stake, which could run from $300 million to $500 million and value Facebook between $6 billion and $10 billion, could open the floodgates for social-networking vendors going public with high valuations.
"Indeed, it is such a large amount that it makes me suspect that we're in the run-up to another bubble in Internet company values," Bradshaw told eWEEK Sept. 26. "If people see this happening, a lot of other people will seek to go public," he said, noting that the public is ripe for a new Internet bubble.
That's right. Another Internet bubble. Another half-decade of sky-high valuations, lavish spending and high-tech incubators.
Fueling the high-cost frenzy for such properties as LinkedIn, Twitter, Bebo, Friendster and Digg, will be the desire to implement technologies from these companies into products for the enterprise, Bradshaw said.
Should some sort of Microsoft-Facebook union come to fruition, expect some of Facebook's social-computing tools to be incorporated in Microsoft's SharePoint collaboration software, said IDC analyst Mark Levitt.
"My take is that Microsoft is active enough in the consumer Web space that an investment in Facebook may not result in any crossing over into the enterprise for the foreseeable future," Levitt told eWEEK. "But down the road, you are right that the Facebook's experience and technology could find its way into Microsoft's SharePoint solutions for enabling business social networking."
However, Bradshaw said the stovepiped architecture of enterprise applications present some significant obstacles for vendors to address.
He said while social networks such as Facebook, of Palo Alto, Calif., and LinkedIn have made some strides on the recruitment ground, no one has cracked the selling of tools that enterprises themselves could adopt.
Aside from the challenges of negotiating social networking into enterprise systems, Bradshaw said that some problems with Facebook could preclude the company from rising as fast as some think and thwart his theory.
He said businesses would have to build relationships with customers to link the information, supply chain and value chain flows together.
"We don't have good software yet that manages those links," Bock said. "Every major company is working on defining and managing the links and I don't think the Googles, Facebooks and Amazons understand the enterprise enough to do that."
尽管还只是传言，但微软要入股Facebook5%股份的消息，让一些专家开始为下一个互联网泡沫担忧。
Ovum的分析师David Bradshaw表示，Facebook的市值在60亿美元到100亿美元之间，而微软的这次入股将达到3亿至5亿美元，如此巨额的诱惑将掀起社交型网络公司上市的高潮，而他一再强调纷纷上市正是互联网泡沫膨胀的标志。Bradshaw认为，与Facebook类似的公司还包括LinkedIn, Twitter, Bebo, Friendster 和Digg。
IDC的分析师Mark Levitt认为一旦微软与Facebook合作了，那么后者的社交网络工具将被整合到微软的SharePoint软件中。“虽然凭借Facebook的技术和经验，这些工具会在SharePoint中生存下去，却戴上了企业级应用的帽子，从而成为用户使用的阻碍。”
Mark Levitt表示，像Facebook、LinkedIn等社交网络在上市和扩张的途中，却没有注意他们各自是否能够应对工具被出售。而且Facebook在成长为企业级过程中所出现的挑战，会阻碍它成长为有思想、有远见的公司。Gilbane Group的分析师Geoff Bock也认同这个观点。
Burton Group 分析师Mike Gotta则认为，“现在来断定这否是下一个互联网泡沫的开始，还为时尚早，我反而认为，这是社会、市场和经济趋势模式的一种扩展。”
9月25日，《华尔街日报》报道，微软正与Facebook洽谈，打算以三亿至五亿美元买入后者百分之五的股份，相当于把Facebook市值定为一百亿美元。不过，《华尔街日报》表示，微软和Facebook的谈判仍属初步，Google也表示有兴趣。
