The top 10 dead (or dying) computer skills

(Computerworld) Those in search of eternal life need look no further than the computer industry. Here, last gasps are rarely taken, as aging systems crank away in back rooms across the U.S., not unlike 1970s reruns on Nickelodeon's TV Land. So while it may not be exactly easy for Novell NetWare engineers and OS/2 administrators to find employers who require their services, it's very difficult to declare these skills -- or any computer skill, really -- dead. (Readers have their own views on dead and dying skills. Others offer their own suggestions for the pyre.)

In fact, the harder you try to declare a technology dead, it seems, the more you turn up evidence of its continuing existence. Nevertheless, after speaking with several industry stalwarts, we've compiled a list of skills and technologies that, while not dead, can perhaps be said to be in the process of dying. Or as Stewart Padveen, Internet entrepreneur and currently founder of AdPickles Inc., says, "Obsolescence is a relative -- not absolute -- term in the world of technology."

1. Cobol

Y2k was like a second gold rush for Cobol programmers who were seeing dwindling need for their skills. But six-and-a-half years later, there's no savior in sight for this fading language. At the same time, while there's little curriculum coverage anymore at universities teaching computer science, "when you talk to practitioners, they'll say there are applications in thousands of organizations that have to be maintained," says Heikki Topi, chair of computer information services at Bentley College in Waltham, Mass., and a member of the education board for the Association for Computing Machinery.

And for those who want to help do that, you can actually learn Cobol at Southern Illinois University at Edwardsville, which according to Mary Sumner, a professor there, still offers a Cobol course. "Two of the major employers in the area still use Cobol, and for many of their entry-level jobs, they want to see that on the transcript," she says. "Until that changes, we'd be doing the students a disservice by not offering it." (see also: "Cobol Coders: Going, Going, Gone? ")

2. Nonrelational DBMS

In the 1980s, there were two major database management systems approaches: hierarchical systems, such as IBM's IMS and SAS Institute Inc.'s System 2000, and network DBMS, such as CA's IDMS and Oracle Corp.'s DBMS, formerly the VAX DBMS. Today, however, both have been replaced by the relational DBMS approach, embodied by SQL databases such as DB2, Oracle and Microsoft SQL Server, says Topi. "The others are rarely covered anymore in database curricula," he says.

3. Non-IP networks

TCP/IP has largely taken over the networking world, and as a result, there's less demand than ever for IBM Systems Network Architecture (SNA) skills. "It's worth virtually nothing on the market," says David Foote, president of Foote Partners LLC in New Canaan, Conn. Foote tracks market pay for individual IT skills, which companies usually pay as a lump sum or a percentage of workers' base pay, either as a bonus or an adjustment to their base salary. SNA, Foote says, commands less than 1% premium pay. "It's like a penny from 1922 -- there has to be someone who wants to buy it."

Despite the fact that many banks, insurance firms and other companies still have large investments in SNA networks, the educational offerings in this area are also rare, according to Topi. "The dominant model of protocols is TCP/IP and the Internet technologies," he says.

4. cc:Mail
This store-and-forward LAN-based e-mail system from the 1980s was once used by about 20 million people. However, as e-mail was integrated into more-complex systems such as Lotus Notes and Microsoft Exchange, its popularity waned, and in 2000, it was withdrawn from the market. According to Foote, "cc:Mail is a bygone era. Now e-mail is tied into everything else, and cc:Mail didn't make that leap." Just the same, the product continues to be commercially supported by Global System Services Corp. in Mountain View, Calif.

5. ColdFusion

This once-popular Web programming language -- released in the mid-1990s by Allaire Corp. (which was later purchased by Macromedia Inc., which itself was acquired by Adobe Systems Inc.) -- has since been superseded by other development platforms, including Microsoft Corp.'s Active Server Pages and .Net, as well as Java, Ruby on Rails, Python, PHP and other open-source languages. Debates continue over whether ColdFusion is as robust and scalable as its competitors, but nevertheless, premiums paid for ColdFusion programmers have dropped way off, according to Foote. "It was really popular at one time, but the market is now crowded with other products," he says.

6. C programming

As the Web takes over, C languages are also becoming less relevant, according to Padveen. "C++ and C Sharp are still alive and kicking, but try to find a basic C-only programmer today, and you'll likely find a guy that's unemployed and/or training for a new skill," he says. (see also: "Hot Skills, Cold Skills ")

7. PowerBuilder

Recruiters that have been around since the 1990s, such as David Hayes, president of HireMinds LLC in Cambridge, Mass., remember when PowerBuilder programmers were "hot, hot, hot," as he says. Developed by Powersoft Inc., this client/server development tool in 1994 was bought by Sybase Inc., which was once a strong Oracle competitor.

Today, PowerBuilder developers are at the very bottom of the list of in-demand application development and platform skills, with pay about equal to Cobol programmers, according to Foote. Nevertheless, the product keeps on trucking, with PowerBuilder 11 expected this year, which has the ability to generate .Net code. (see also: "35 Technologies that shaped the industry ")

8. Certified NetWare Engineers

In the early 1990s, it was all the rage to become a Certified NetWare Engineer, especially with Novell Inc. enjoying 90% market share for PC-based servers. Today, however, you don't have to look far to find CNEs retraining themselves with other skills to stay marketable. "It seems like it happened overnight," Hayes says. "Everyone had Novell, and within a two-year period, they'd all switched to NT." Novell says it will continue supporting NetWare 6.5 through at least 2015; however, it has also retired several of its NetWare certifications, including Master CNE and NetWare 5 CNE, and it plans to retire NetWare 6 CNE. "Companies are still paying skill premiums for CNEs, but they're losing value," Foote says.

9. PC network administrators

With the accelerating move to consolidate Windows servers, some see substantially less demand for PC network administrators. "You see the evidence for that in the demise of those programs at the technical and two-year schools and the loss of instructors," says Nate Viall, president of Nate Viall & Associates, an AS/400 (iSeries) recruiting company.

10. OS/2

A rough translation of OS/2 could be "wrong horse." Initially created by Microsoft and IBM and released with great fanfare in 1987, the collaboration soon unraveled, and after repeated rumors of its demise, IBM finally discontinued sales in 2005. OS/2 still has a dedicated community, however, and a company called Serenity Systems International still sells the operating system under the name eComStation.

十大已亡或正在灭亡的电脑技术，C入选

来自Computerworld  很难说这些技术真的灭亡了，因为他们至今还存在于某些领域。实际上，说一种技术灭亡的过程也正是寻找它生命力依旧的过程。在经过仔细的权衡后，我们列出下面这个名单，注意只是相对的而不是绝对的。

1.Cobol：

Y2k（千年虫）好像给了Cobol一次新机遇，然而仅仅六个月到一年的时间，这门衰退的语言便再无救世主，与此同时，也极少有学校再开这门课。

2.Nonrelational DBMS：

20世纪80年代，主要有两大数据库管理系统方式：一是多级递阶系统（hierarchical systems）如IBM的IMS，另一种就是network DBMS，像当初的OracleDBMS。然而今天二者都已被关系型数据库管理系统所取代，像DB2, Oracle and Microsoft SQL Server。

3.Non-IP networks：

TCP/IP已经基本统治了网络世界，由此同时，人们对IBM SNA (Systems Network Architecture)的需求也越来越少。尽管现在仍有许多银行、保险公司在SNA网络方面投资，然而在整个网络投资方面的比例已经很小很小。

4.cc:Mail：

这一基于LAN存储转发的e-mail系统始于80年代初，曾达到两千万的使用人数。然而当更复杂的邮件系统如Lotus Notes 和Microsoft Exchange出现的时候，它便迅速末落了。

5.ColdFusion：

曾经流行的网页设计语言，由Allaire公司在上世纪90年代中期推出。曾经关于ColdFusion是否灭亡的争论也已平息，因为现在已经是.Net，Java，Ruby on Rails，Python，PHP的天下。

6.C语言：

随着Web时代的来临，C 语言跟这个时代越来越没关系。“C++和C#仍然矫健着，但如果你想找一个纯C语言的程序员，要么他失业，要么他正在学习一门新语言。”

7.PowerBuilder：

美国Powersoft公司于90年代初推出的基于客户/服务器体系结构的面向对象的数据库开发工具，后被Sybase收购，还记得它当初有多热吗？ 被视为Oracle的竞争对手。然而现在PowerBuilder程序员处于需求的最底层。不过预计今年推出的PowerBuilder 11已经可以生成.NET代码。

8.Certified NetWare Engineers：

90年代成为一位Certified NetWare Engineer是很时髦的事，一度让Novell在PC服务业占据90%的市场份额。然而两年的时间人们便转向了NT。“就像一夜之间发生的一样。”

9.PC network administrators：

越来越多的人转到Windows servers，network administrators(网络管理员)的需求越来越少。

10.OS/2：

最初由微软和IBM联合在1987年隆重推出，然而不久合作破裂，IBM在经过一段时间为OS/2的消亡辟谣之后，还是在2005年终止了销售。现在OS/2还是有一个专门的社区，这款开放的操作系统仍被一家叫Serenity Systems International 的公司以eComStation的名字销售。

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