Asian Real Estate Is Booming

04.06.2007 Asian real estate stocks are becoming more mainstream. Propertyinvesting not only represents growth opportunities, it also offers ahedge against inflation. Boon Hong Yeo, fund manager for the AssetManagement division of Credit Suisse, explains the benefits ofinvesting into the Asian real estate sector.

Related Link: The Asian Property Fund in the Spotlight (for swiss residents only) Andreas Thomann: When the topic of the Asian housing market ismentioned, many people might think of the growing skyline of Beijing orShanghai. How important is the Chinese housing market compared to therest of Asia? Boon Hong Yeo:China in the context of Asia is very significant as it representstremendous growth opportunities for real estate equities. The demand islargely being driven by the redistribution of wealth and surging urbanpopulations. In China, only 50 percent of the population lives incities. According to United Nations’ studies, the coming years shouldsee a major increase in urbanization and the demand for housing. Inaddition, the Chinese Government is putting policies in place gearedtoward affordable housing and more transparency in land acquisitions.And banks are increasingly extending mortgage loans so financing ofhome purchases is becoming more prominent. How much will the Olympic Games in Beijing of 2008 and the World Exhibition of 2010 in Shanghai trigger this development? The property cycle is running independent of the Olympic planning,however the Beijing Olympic Games will hasten the developing realestate market especially in light of likely government desire tominimize construction activity immediately prior and during theOlympics. The World Exhibition of 2010 in Shanghai will be the firstregistered World Exposition in China. The Exposition 2010 will attractgovernment officials and tourists globally helping to further stimulatethe economy, however it will not have as strong an impact on propertyas the Beijing Olympics. What about property rights in China? Are property rights a riskfor investors, as the government doesn’t officially allow the ownershipof private property? The Chinese government is attempting to simplify property rights andother laws governing real estate ownership. At the annual session inMarch of the National People’s Congress, the Chinese parliament passedThe Property Rights Law which is the first law enacted to protect therights of legitimate private property owners. This is very pre-emptiveof the authorities in China and our investment team believes thesemeasures are positive for the sector. Additional legislation enacted bythe Chinese government includes the Land Appreciation Tax to clamp downon the high end property market so property developers create moreaffordable housing for the masses. Remarkably high prices are beingcommanded for new residential property in cities like Beijing andShanghai which the majority of the population cannot afford. What about the “big players” such as Japan and Australia? Land prices in Japan have turned slightly upward in 2007 postingpositive returns for the first time in 16 years. This is mainlyattributable to the main cities of Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya, where newbuildings are going up at a rapid pace but are quickly being absorbedby the market thanks to the recovering Japanese economy. In Tokyooffice vacancy rates are at very low levels (less than 3 percent), thesupply of buildings is falling and rents have been rising. Theprospects for rental and capital growth look promising for thiscountry. Australia is the most advanced Real Estate Investment Trusts(REIT) market in Asia. It is a very mature and stable market withyields similar to government bonds at about 6 percent. It is alsoestimated that 40 percent of the assets are offshore. The Credit SuisseAsian Property team views Australia as an expensive market andcontinues to maintain an underweight position versus the GPR AsiaIndex. How does Hong Kong compare? Honk Kong is the older and more prominent real estate market in Asia,but also the next largest property market. The Credit Suisse AsianProperty Team prefers residential developers more than the officesector. Strong labor demand, positive wage growth and decliningmortgage rates are positive trends supportive of the residentialproperty market going forward. Our investment specialists also preferHong Kong based companies increasing their assets in mainland China asit will provide growth and diversification opportunities for HongKong-based property companies. Two to three years ago, these companies’Chinese assets probably averaged about 5 percent of their balancesheets. By 2008 we estimate a lot of them pushing to 30 percent to 40percent. Does Singapore also play a role? It is important to mention Singapore as it is also a developed marketand considered one of the “big players” for Asian Listed Property.Singapore, Asia’s second largest REIT market, is in the midst of aresidential property boom with prices at record highs of about 3,500dollars a square foot at the top end of the market, compared with justover a 1,000 dollars during the last peak 10 years ago. A key factordriving the entire Singapore real estate market has been the award oflicenses to build two big integrated casino resorts; Marina Bay Sandsand Resorts World at Sentosa.There is also no new office supply due inthe prime business district until 2010, while the influx of skilledlabour is running at high levels adding to the demand pool forproperties. Isn’t there a danger of bubble building in the Asian real estate market? Although there has been rapid price appreciation, we think thefundamental drivers for growth are in tact and valuations have notreached overly speculative levels. There are many ways of participating in the growthopportunities in Asia, like equities of companies into infrastructure,leisure, energy, but also by investing into commodities. Why should oneinvest in the real estate market? Real Estate as an asset class has low correlation to other assetclasses, providing diversification benefits and reducing the volatilityof a multi-asset class portfolio. In addition, Asian real estate stocksare becoming more of a mainstream investment. The GPR Asia Index has posted double digit returns and strongly out performed a range of asset classes over the past 5 years. Property investing offers some hedgeagainst inflation, so if inflation takes off in Asian countries all themarkets will take a hit but the real estate sector will likely recoverquicker.

亚洲房地产正在蓬勃发展

2007年06月04日  亚洲房地产股票开始变得越来越主流。如今对于地产投资的需要已不仅仅是为了利益的增长，同时为了对抗通货膨胀。瑞士信贷资产管理部基金经理人Boon Hong Yeo对投资亚洲房地产的优势做了解释。

Andreas Thomann：当提及亚洲房地产（住房housing market）市场，许多人可能会想到北京与上海。那中国房地产市场对于整个亚洲来说，其重要程度有多少？
Boon Hong Yeo：在亚洲范围，中国在地产股票上表现出巨大的成长潜力。这种需求很大一部分原因在于财富再分配以及城市化政策的驱使。在中国，只有50%的人口生活在城市中。据联合国研究报告，在未来几年里，这种城市化进程将继续并且表现为对于住房的增长。除此之外，中国政府正在落实一些政策，使得土地收购更加透明度，从而人们能够负担得起住房。同时，银行也正日益扩大按揭贷款，以便提供融资购房。

北京2008年奥运会以及上海2010年世博会，这两个活动对于房地产的发展来说能起到何等作用？
房地产周期的进程与奥运会无关，但是这次北京奥运会会加快房地产市场的发展，尤其是考虑到政府可能希望在奥运会前夕及举办期间，能够尽量减少房地产的施工活动。而这次2010年在上海的世博会是中国第一次注册举办这类世界性博览会，政府官员的关注以及世界各地的游客将会进一步刺激经济。但是与北京奥运会相比，世博会对于房地产的影响不会那么大。

你是如何看待中国的土地产权（property rights）的？由于政府不允许土地私有，那这种性质的产权对于投资者来说是否是种风险？
中国政府正在试图简化土地产权以及其他法律支配下的不动产所有权。在3月举行的人代会上人们通过了物权法，这是一个以保护合法私有财产权利为基础的法律。我们的投资团队认为，这些措施对于房地产市场来说是积极的。同时额外立法通过了土地升值税以缓解过热的房地产市场，以使得地产商能够为大众建造更多的经济适用房。在那些城市大多数人口都无法承受房价的地方（如：北京、上海），政府正在对新建楼房进行控制以防止过高的房地产价格。

那像日本以及澳大利亚这样的重要国家，其房地产市场是如何的？
日本的土地价格在今年出现了小小的回升，这是16年来第一次正增长。而其中的原因在于：日本的主要城市（东京、大阪、名古屋）的新建筑正快速的拔地而起，但由于日本经济处于复苏期，因此这些进展很快被市场吸收了。在东京，办公楼的空置率是十分低的（小于3%），同时房屋的供给持续下降，租金却持续走高。这种租赁以及资本增长的状态对日本来说是十分有利的。澳大利亚是亚洲地产投资信用最高的市场。他们的市场非常成熟稳定，其收益率近似等于政府债券利率为6%。也有人估计有40%的资产属于境外资产。瑞士信贷第一波士顿亚洲地产研究团队认为：作为这样一个投资成本如此之高的市场，与亚洲GPR指数（The GPR index, derived from Global Property Research, is a stock marketindex composed of property companies that trade on several global exchanges.）的增长势头相比，澳大利亚将会继续维持这样一个低姿态。

那香港的房地产市场呢？
香港的房地产市场比较悠久和突出，但是将会是未来最大的地产市场。瑞士信贷亚洲地产团队。对于劳动力的强烈需求、工资的上涨以及抵押贷款利率的下降使得住宅地产市场开始增长。我们的投资专家认为，香港公司在大陆增加他们的资产这一行为将为香港房地产企业提供增长和多样化的机会。2~3年之前，这些企业在中国的财产总额估计占资产负债表中的5%左右。到2008年，我们估计这个份额将增加到30~40%

新加坡的市场是否也起到作用？
新加坡这样一个发达的市场对于亚洲地产的发展同样非常重要。作为亚洲第二大投资信用最高的市场，新加坡正处于一个住房地产市场十分景气的阶段。与10年前市场峰值1000美元每平方英尺相比，现在的房价最高到达3500美元每一平方英尺。一个重要的驱使新加坡地产市场增长的因素是政府对于建立两所综合性赌场度假村（ Marina Bay Sands 、Resorts World at Sentosa）的许可。此外，在2010之前新加坡主要的商务区几乎没有新的办公置业供给，而与此同时来自外面的技术性劳动力涌入使得对于地产产生需求。

那亚洲地产市场是否有存在泡沫的危险？
尽管现在房价增速很快，但是我们认为：现在的对于房地产的估值还没有达到过度投机的水平。

现在在亚洲存在很多的方式来抓住这股经济增长的机遇，像很多企业将股份投资于基础设施、奢侈品、能源，并且尝试将投资转化为商品。那为什么还要投资与房地产市场呢？
与其他资产相比，房地产这样的投资能够提供更多样的利益并且减少因投资组合单一而产生的风险。此外在亚洲，地产类股票的投资将变得越来越主流。亚洲GPR指数现在呈现出两位数的投资回报率，而这种增长率在过去5年前才有过。房地产投资能够抵抗通货膨胀，所以如果亚洲发生通货膨胀，除了房地产市场，所有的市场将会受到重创，而房地产市场可能会更快的从中恢复。