Apple's Japan iPhone Strategy

Apple's Japan iPhone Strategy

Softbank, the No. 3 mobile operator, will sell the coveted cell phone in Japan. But its deal with Apple probably won't be exclusive

by Kenji Hall

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Softbank's June 4 announcement that it has signed up to sell Apple's (APPL) popular iPhone in Japan might seem like a major coup for the country's third-largest mobile operator. A new and improved iPhone, which Apple is widely expected to unveil at the Worldwide Developers' Conference (WWDC) in San Francisco next week (BusinessWeek, 5/27/08), could help Softbank narrow the gap with the two largest wireless carriers, NTT DoCoMo (DCM) and KDDI. The buzz alone should boost Softbank's brand image with consumers and its standing with software developers and Internet content creators.

But the company's one-line statement that it plans to "bring the iPhone to Japan later this year" was revealing in its brevity. One issue that Softbank avoided mentioning was whether the deal with Apple is exclusive. That's unlikely to happen, industry executives say, because Apple has moved away from the type of exclusive deals with operators that it favored when the iPhone debuted last year. Earlier this month, Apple granted both Vodafone Group (VOD) and Telecom Italia (TI.A) the right to sell the iPhone in Italy.

Apple also won't want to limit itself to Softbank's 18.8 million subscribers. In recent months, Apple execs have held several meetings with officials from both Softbank and DoCoMo at Apple headquarters in Cupertino, Calif., according to industry executives. Apple's best shot at gaining a toehold in one of the most sophisticated mobile markets on the planet is to appeal to as many of Japan's 108 million mobile subscribers as possible. Success would help its chances in other markets. Another incentive: Japan accounts for nearly a quarter of the $105 billion in global cell-phone sales annually, according to Tokyo research firm Eurotechnology Japan.

Trying to Gain the Upper Hand

Many analysts think Apple has no choice but to go after the 53.5 million in DoCoMo's camp. Making the iPhone available to as many consumers as possible could also lift sales of Apple's other products in Japan, where the company makes just 4% of overall annual revenues and 5% of operating income. Apple and Softbank declined to comment.

But why greenlight Softbank first? Some telecom execs suspect Apple is trying to gain the upper hand in talks with DoCoMo. "DoCoMo is proud and it might say, 'we don't want the iPhone,'" says one telecom executive who spoke on condition of anonymity. "But it risks losing market share and a product that Softbank could use against DoCoMo." A DoCoMo spokesman would only say that further talks with Apple were possible.

It's a shrewd tactic. Apple normally wouldn't announce a new gizmo until it has something to show off. The company's current iPhone doesn't work on Japan's third-generation wireless networks; analysts expect an update at the WWDC on June 9. So you can hardly expect Apple officials to comment on Softbank's press release. Playing hardball isn't totally out of character for Apple, either. One example: Years ago, the company announced a new iMac desktop months early to prod retailers in Japan, Europe, and North America to accept much lower margins than they were accustomed to, according to former Apple insiders.

DoCoMo Used to Calling the Shots

DoCoMo isn't in the best of negotiating positions. Its revenues have been falling, and Goldman Sachs (GS) predicts they will continue to do so through the fiscal year ending March, 2011. And in the past 12 months, DoCoMo's share of the market has slid from 51.4% to 49.7%, while Softbank's has risen from 15.8% to 17.5%. (No. 2, KDDI, has held steady at around 28%.)

But DoCoMo might not cave to the pressure. Japan's dominant carrier is used to calling the shots when dealing with handset manufacturers. Apple's demands for 30% of airtime revenues from every iPhone user and permission to activate new subscribers through its iTunes online store could be a deal-breaker. And DoCoMo knows that if it gives in to Apple it will have a dozen or more other tech companies whose handsets connect to its network asking for similar concessions.

All the hype won't do much for Apple unless its new iPhone stands out from other feature-packed handsets in Japan. A touch screen, user-friendly software, and Internet connectivity are hardly novel. These days handsets in Japan double as credit cards and commuter passes, sport high-end cameras and bar code readers, boast Internet browsers over high-speed connections, record TV broadcasts, and do e-mail, and many come with customized Web-based services.

In recent weeks, Sharp and LG Electronics have released their own touch-panel phones, beating the iPhone to market. Assuming that Softbank is the only carrier selling the iPhone, "I predict it will sell 200,000 to 300,000, 500,000 tops," says Makio Inui, managing director and telecoms analyst at UBS (UBS) in Tokyo. "It's not going to move the needle in this market."

Even Softbank CEO Masayoshi Son has his doubts. During a meeting at Softbank headquarters last fall, Son said he was skeptical that the iPhone would win over many subscribers, and that he would work with other manufacturers to "create our own version," according to a person who attended the meeting.

Hall is BusinessWeek's technology correspondent in Tokyo .

苹果在日本的iPhone策略

苹果在日本的iPhone策略

日本第三大手机运营商软银（Softbank）将在日本销售人们梦寐以求的iPhone。但是软银可能不是iPhone在日本的独家经销商。

软银6月4日宣布已经和苹果（APPLE）达成协议，将在日本销售iPhone手机，这似乎将像改变软银作为国家第三大手机运营商地位。苹果公司将在芝加哥举行的全球开发商会中公布最新版的iPhone.，这一举动将有助于软银缩小和无线运营商两大巨头NTT DoCoMo (DCM)和 KDDI之间的差距。但就这一消息本身就可以提升软银在消费者、软件同行和网络内容制造商心目中品牌形象。

软银在线简单申明：“将会在今年年末将iPhone引入日本市场”。在这项申明中软银极力避免谈及是否为iPhone日本的独家代理。业内人士之处，软银不大可能是独家代理，因为从今年起，苹果已经不再采用签署独家代理的业务模式。本月初，苹果公司同时准许沃达丰集团和意大利电信在意大利出售iPhone.

苹果公司不会将自己的用户局限在软银的1880万用户上。最近几个月，苹果高层和软银、DoCoMo高层在苹果总部，加利福尼亚州的Cupertino，多次会晤。苹果想要在全球最成熟的手机市场之一日本立足的最佳方法就是尽可能赢得日本1亿800万手机用户。在日本获得成功将对有利于在其他地方开展业务。另一方面，据东京研究机构研究数据，在全球年均1050亿美元手机销售额中，日本占据1/4。

设法占据主导

许多分析师认为苹果公司必须争取DoCoMo的5350万用户。这样，iPhone在日本才能拥有尽可能多的用户，同样可以提升苹果公司其他产品在日本的市场份额。目前，苹果公司在日本全年收入额只占公司总收入的4%，运营额占总运营额的5%。苹果公司和软银公司拒绝对此发表评论。

但是，苹果公司为什么会选择软银呢？一些电信高层认为，苹果致力于加大和DoCoMo交谈的砝码。”DoCoMo妄自尊大，或许它会说，’我们不需要iPhone’”。一位不愿透入姓名的业内人士说：“但是现在他面临和软银抢占市场份额的危险”。DoCoMo发言人只表示将会和苹果公司进一步会谈。

这是一个精明的策略。苹果公司从来不会在产品还没有诞生的时候炫耀。苹果现在的iPhone将不再日本第三代无线网络上运行，分析师预计iPhone的新版本将在6月9号的开发者大会上公布。因此，现在很难得到苹果公司官方对软银新闻稿的评论。不过也有例外，比如：据苹果内部人员透露，几年前，苹果公司提前数月公布了新款iMac产品，使得日本、欧洲、北美的零售商蒙受巨大损失。

DoCoMo 惯常做决定

DoCoMo不具备最佳的谈判条件。公司的收入额持续下滑，高盛集团预计，这种下滑将一直持续到2011年三月的财年。在过去的12个月，DoCoMo的市场份额从51.4%下降到49.7%。而软银公司则从15.8%上升到17.5%。（电信第二巨头稳步保存在28%）。

但是，DoCoMo不会迫于这样的压力。在和手机生产商的合作过程中，DoCoMo都是决策者。苹果公司要求保有iPhone用户30% 的视频收入，而且苹果公司可以通过在线iTune商店激活新的用户，这对于DoCoMo是个很大的挑战。因为DoCoMo意识到如果向苹果公司妥协，将使得在和其他网络接入技术公司合作时也会要求同样的让步。

大幅度的宣传并不会对iPhone立足日本有和优势，除非新版iPhone能够和日本其他功能丰富的手机与众不同。触摸屏、用户界面有好的软件和网络联通已经不再是什么新颖的功能了。现在，日本市场的额手机已经可以兼任多角，信用卡、月票、高端运动相机、读卡机、高速网络浏览、录制电视节目、收发电子邮件、以及实现很多定制的基于网络的服务。

最近几周，夏普和LG电子推出自身的触摸屏手机，来和iPhone抢占市场。如果只有软银独家销售iPhone。“我估计能够卖出20万到30万，最多50万”，东京UBS执行董事兼电信分析师Makio Inui说，“”这不会改变市场定格。

即使是软银的首席执行官 Masayoshi Son也心存疑虑。在去年秋天举行的软银首脑会议中，据一名参加此次会议的人称，Son怀疑iPhone是否可以赢取很多用户，并表示，他将和其他制造商合作创造自己的产品。

商业周刊技术专员Hall东京报道。