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金牌译作 房产价格预测：您的房产来年将价值几何

2213个读者 翻译: Orinz  05/13/2008 原文 引用 双语对照及眉批

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Home Price Forecasts: What Your Home Will Be Worth Next Year

Published 五月 12, 2008
Home prices are expected to decline in 75 of the top 100 U.S. markets over the next 12 months. Some estimates predict prices will fall by an average of 10 percent. Check out this forecast to see how much your home will be worth next year.

BY BAILEY HARRIS

There are a lot of different predictions out there about how far home prices will fall. The U.S. Treasury estimates that prices will fall another 10 to 15 percent before hitting bottom. Optimists, such as the National Association or Realtors, are predicting single-digit declines.

The Money Magazine Forecast

Money Magazine recently put out a city-by-city home price forecast as well. Using data from Fiserv Lending Solutions, First American CoreLogic, city and county assessors, and realtors, the magazine determined that U.S. home prices will fall an average of 9.7 percent.

Miami is expected to see the most lost equity. Money Magazine is predicting a 24.9 percent drop. Cities in Texas and New York are expected to fare the best.

Metro Area Median Home Price Forecast May 09 (% chg)
Albuquerque, NM $174,000 -10.5%
Atlanta, GA $205,000 -2.3%
Baltimore, MD $264,000 -12.5%
Boston, MA $363,000 -10.5%
Chicago, IL $279,000 -6.8%
Cleveland, OH $145,000 -4.3%
Denver, CO $254,000 -10.8%
Detroit, MI $120,000 8.6%
Edison, NJ $358,000 -15.8%
Fort Lauderdale, FL $309,000 -22.2%
Honolulu, HI $625,000 -16.2%
Houston, TX $150,000 1.2%
Jacksonville, FL $197,000 -9.6%
Kansas City, KS $148,000 -0.6%
Las Vegas, NV $277,000 -18.3%
Los Angeles, CA $528,000 -16.8%
McAllen, Texas $109,000 4.0%
Miami, FL $329,000 -24.9%
New Orleans, LA $158,000 2.2%
New York City, NY $471,000 -13.2%
Philadelphia, PA $200,000 -11.1%
Phoenix, AZ $237,000 -18.3%
Portland, OR $306,000 -14.7%
Riverside, CA $340,000 -16.9%
Rochester, NY $121,000 2.7%
Sacramento, CA $330,000 -8.9%
Salt Lake City, UT $229,000 -9.8%
San Diego, CA $522,000 -9.7%
San Francisco, CA $840,000 -10.1%
San Jose, CA $750,000 -12.5%
Seattle, WA $430,000 -9.0%
Springfield, MA $195,000 -9.5%
Stamford, CT $562,000 -13.9%
Stockton, CA $341,000 -16.8%
Syracuse, NY $126,000 2.6%
Washington D.C. $408,000 -13.2%
Wilmington, DE $259,000 -10.3%

Source: Money Magazine

To see home price forecasts for all 100 of the top U.S. markets, click on the link under the chart.

房产价格预测：您的房产来年将价值几何

在接下来的12个月，（美国）房屋价格（指数）预计将从最高位的100点下降至75点。有些人则预计平均下降10%。对照一下这份预测表格，看看您的房产在来年将价值几何。

（作者）BAILEY HARRIS

有许多关于房屋价格下跌的预测。美国财政部估计，在跌到谷底之前，价格还将下跌10%～15%。乐观者，比如全国房地产经纪人协会估计降幅是个位数。

金钱杂志的预测

金钱杂志近期也推出了一份各个城市房屋价格预测报告。分析数据来自于Fiserv Lending Solutions公司、First American CoreLogic公司、城镇估税员及房产经纪人，杂志判断美国房产价格将平均下降9.7%。

迈阿密州预计是房产损失最多的州，按照金钱杂志预计，降幅将达24.9%。在得克萨斯和纽约州的城市则要好得多。

城市区域 中等房屋价格 09年变化（%）
Albuquerque, NM $174,000 -10.5%
Atlanta, GA $205,000 -2.3%
Baltimore, MD $264,000 -12.5%
Boston, MA $363,000 -10.5%
Chicago, IL $279,000 -6.8%
Cleveland, OH $145,000 -4.3%
Denver, CO $254,000 -10.8%
Detroit, MI $120,000 8.6%
Edison, NJ $358,000 -15.8%
Fort Lauderdale, FL $309,000 -22.2%
Honolulu, HI $625,000 -16.2%
Houston, TX $150,000 1.2%
Jacksonville, FL $197,000 -9.6%
Kansas City, KS $148,000 -0.6%
Las Vegas, NV $277,000 -18.3%
Los Angeles, CA $528,000 -16.8%
McAllen, Texas $109,000 4.0%
Miami, FL $329,000 -24.9%
New Orleans, LA $158,000 2.2%
New York City, NY $471,000 -13.2%
Philadelphia, PA $200,000 -11.1%
Phoenix, AZ $237,000 -18.3%
Portland, OR $306,000 -14.7%
Riverside, CA $340,000 -16.9%
Rochester, NY $121,000 2.7%
Sacramento, CA $330,000 -8.9%
Salt Lake City, UT $229,000 -9.8%
San Diego, CA $522,000 -9.7%
San Francisco, CA $840,000 -10.1%
San Jose, CA $750,000 -12.5%
Seattle, WA $430,000 -9.0%
Springfield, MA $195,000 -9.5%
Stamford, CT $562,000 -13.9%
Stockton, CA $341,000 -16.8%
Syracuse, NY $126,000 2.6%
Washington D.C. $408,000 -13.2%
Wilmington, DE $259,000 -10.3%
USA $206,000 -9.7%

来源：金钱杂志

想看更多有关美国前100城市的房屋价格预测，请点击图表下的链接。


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