股神巴菲特2008年度致股东的信

To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:

Our gain in net worth during 2007 was $12.3 billion, which increased the per-share book value of both our Class A and Class B stock by 11%. Over the last 43 years (that is, since present management took over) book value has grown from $19 to $78,008, a rate of 21.1% compounded annually.

Overall, our 76 operating businesses did well last year. The few that had problems were primarily those linked to housing, among them our brick, carpet and real estate brokerage operations. Their setbacks are minor and temporary. Our competitive position in these businesses remains strong, and we have firstclass CEOs who run them right, in good times or bad.

Some major financial institutions have, however, experienced staggering problems because they engaged in the “weakened lending practices” I described in last year’s letter. John Stumpf, CEO of Wells Fargo, aptly dissected the recent behavior of many lenders: “It is interesting that the industry has invented new ways to lose money when the old ways seemed to work just fine.”

You may recall a 2003 Silicon Valley bumper sticker that implored, “Please, God, Just One More Bubble.” Unfortunately, this wish was promptly granted, as just about all Americans came to believe that house prices would forever rise. That conviction made a borrower’s income and cash equity seem unimportant to lenders, who shoveled out money, confident that HPA – house price appreciation – would cure all problems. Today, our country is experiencing widespread pain because of that erroneous belief.

As house prices fall, a huge amount of financial folly is being exposed. You only learn who has been swimming naked when the tide goes out – and what we are witnessing at some of our largest financial institutions is an ugly sight.

Turning to happier thoughts, we can report that Berkshire’s newest acquisitions of size, TTI and Iscar, led by their CEOs, Paul Andrews and Jacob Harpaz respectively, performed magnificently in 2007.

Iscar is as impressive a manufacturing operation as I’ve seen, a view I reported last year and that was confirmed by a visit I made in the fall to its extraordinary plant in Korea.

Finally, our insurance business – the cornerstone of Berkshire – had an excellent year. Part of the reason is that we have the best collection of insurance managers in the business – more about them later.

But we also were very lucky in 2007, the second year in a row free of major insured catastrophes. That party is over. It’s a certainty that insurance-industry profit margins, including ours, will fall significantly in 2008. Prices are down, and exposures inexorably rise. Even if the U.S. has its third consecutive catastrophe-light year, industry profit margins will probably shrink by four percentage points or so. If the winds roar or the earth trembles, results could be far worse. So be prepared for lower insurance earnings during the next few years. ...

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At 84 and 77, Charlie and I remain lucky beyond our dreams. We were born in America; had terrific parents who saw that we got good educations; have enjoyed wonderful families and great health; and came equipped with a “business” gene that allows us to prosper in a manner hugely disproportionate to that experienced by many people who contribute as much or more to our society’s well-being. Moreover, we have long had jobs that we love, in which we are helped in countless ways by talented and cheerful associates.

Every day is exciting to us; no wonder we tap-dance to work. But nothing is more fun for us than getting together with our shareholder-partners at Berkshire’s annual meeting. So join us on May 3rd at the Qwest for our annual Woodstock for Capitalists. We’ll see you there.

Warren E. Buffett
Chairman of the Board
February 2008

首富股神巴菲特2008年度致股东的信

致波克夏·哈萨韦的股东们：

我们在2007年的净资产营收为123亿美元，也就是说我们A股和B股每股账面价值都增加了11%。在这43年里（也就从是我接手那天起）每股的账面价值从19美元升至78008美元，年复合增长率为21.1%。（译者注：即平均下来每年都都比去年增长21.2%）

总的来说，我们运营的76个项目去年都还不错。少量有问题的主都要是那些和房子有关的项目，包括砖，地毯，地产经纪项目。这些项目的问题都比较轻微，也都是临时的。我们在这些行业中的竞争实力还是很强的，并且我们第一流的CEO操作得很好，不管是在好日子还是坏日子。

一些大的金融机构正在经历困难时期，因为他们都参与到了“脆弱的贷款业务”中——就像我去年的这封信中所描述的。乔尼·斯杜夫，威尔斯·法戈的CEO，很恰当的解析了现在很多贷款机构的行为：“很有趣，当（赚钱的）老路子还运行得还不错的时候，人们发明了新的拿钱打水漂的方法。”

你可能会回忆起2003年硅谷的那些投机者恳求的景象：“上帝啊，再来点泡沫吧。”很不幸，这个愿望实现得快（去得也快），就像所有美国人都曾相信房价会永远涨下去一样。（对这件事情的）深信不疑让那些借钱的人，也就是那些拿铲子往外扔钱的人，对当初借钱的人的收入和财产觉得都不重要了，而只对HPA——房屋价值评估——深信不疑。今天，因为这些错误的想法，我们整个国家都很痛苦。

随着房产价格下降，一大堆金融蠢话也见光死了。只有在突然退潮的时候你才知道谁在裸泳——我们正在见证一些伟大金融机构丑陋的时刻。

说点愉快的事情，我们波克夏公司最新的一个成员，TTI和Iscar，（译者注：TTI创科集团，在全球雇员超过25000人。TTI设计、生产及销售电动工具、户外园艺电动工具、地板护理产品、太阳能照明、激光及电子量度仪等全系列产品。伊斯卡(ISCAR) 是一家全方位的精密碳化钨金属切削刀具供应商， 生产各种的碳化钨刀片、 钨钢铣刀及刀把， 其应用范围涵盖绝大多数的金属切削领域。)在他们现任CEO，保罗·安德鲁和雅各布·哈帕兹带领下，2007年表现非凡。

Iscar是一个我见过的令人印象深刻的制造企业，我去年这么说过，我去年秋天在韩国访问他们的新工厂的时候也得到了应证。

我们的保险业务——波克夏的基石——去年表现非常完美。部分原因是因为我们拥有了行业里最好的保险经理——我后面会介绍。

我们2007年也很幸运，第二次躲过了大的行业灾难。好时光结束了。保险业的利润，包括我们的（企业），在2008年肯定会明显的下降。价格降了，“曝光”（赔钱的几率）却无情的上升了。即便美国已经进入了持续轻微衰退期的第三个年头，但是产业的利润很可能还是会有4%的缩水。如果再来点什么天灾人祸，结果还会更糟。所以请把未来几年保险业的盈利期望降低……

查理和我分别已经84和77岁了，我们依然非常走运。我们都出生在美国；有非常好的父母，看到我们受到很好的教育；有很温馨的家庭和很好的身体；而且后来还具备了“商业”基因，使得我们取得的成功和那些为社会做出许多贡献的人相比极不相称。我们一直喜欢我们的工作，更何况还有那些天才的令人愉快的合作伙伴在各种方面帮助着我们。

我们每天都很愉快，我们都是跳着踢踏舞去上班。但是没有什么比在波克夏的年度会议上和股东朋友在一起更让人高兴的了。请都来参加我们在3月3号在奎斯特举行的伍德斯托克股东年会。咱们不见不散。

瓦伦.E.波菲特

董事会主席

2008年2月