Why Risk Is Important

Why Risk Is Important

Entrepreneurs, like ice climbers, are often said to risk their necks. But there are ways to cut danger to sane levels—and good reasons to try

by Bill Buxton

In a recent conversation with my friend and colleague, , dean of the Rotman School of Management at the University of Toronto, he mentioned that a student had asked him: "What is it about entrepreneurs that enables them to live so far on the edge? Do they thrive on the adrenaline of risk-taking?" This made me think of another question that I frequently encounter when people find out that I love ice climbing: "How can you live with the risk? Do you actually enjoy flirting with death?"

I think that these are all the same question, founded on the same implicit but ill-founded assumption: that risk equates to danger. Now, I am not going to try and convince you that there aren't people who do love the rush of throwing the dice—with their life or their bank account. But just because someone won a multimillion-dollar windfall by buying lottery tickets with their retirement fund, or survived running a treacherous river without any training, the fact is not altered that what they were doing was gambling, not investing. The end result is as unrepeatable as it can be inadvisable.

Calculated Risks

So if it's not the thrill of gambling, what does distinguish the serial entrepreneur and the ice climber from the population at large? For a start, they understand the very clear distinction between risk and danger. Second, and—perhaps most importantly—they know that there are ways to approach an otherwise dangerous task in such a way that the risk is reduced to an acceptable level.

In fact virtually everyone knows this, at least in some domain. For example, driving in good weather on a 12-lane freeway in a well-maintained car is something that a trained driver would not hesitate to do. Yet it could be near suicide (or murder) for someone who had never been behind the wheel of a car, or who was driving a vehicle without brakes. What is curious about human nature is that we sometimes seem unable to translate knowledge from such everyday examples into our workaday life.

Why do entrepreneurs and ice climbers repeatedly prompt questions of flirting with death and disaster? My best guess is that a lack of familiarity prevents nonpractitioners from seeing what lies behind the surface: the serious and conscientious preparation that such people bring to their respective activities. To illustrate this, let me tell you a bit about ice climbing.

Essential Requirements

Anyone who has ever walked on a frozen lake, gone ice skating or tried curling knows that ice is slippery and that it takes practice to move with any kind of confidence. Now imagine that the ice sheet is vertical rather than horizontal. This should give you some sense of the challenge of ice-climbing. But then remember there are four things that the prepared ice-climber brings to the base of any climb: training, tools, fitness, and partner(s)

The need for training is pretty obvious. One has to know what one is doing. Just as you have to learn the rules of the road in order to drive on the freeway, the ice climber has to be educated about technique, the appropriate use of tools and procedures, reading the ice, and the evaluation of objective hazards.

Tools have improved significantly over the past decades. Strapped to one's feet, in a manner not unlike roller-skates (but much more secure) are crampons. These have one or more long, sharp, surrogate toes that you can kick into the ice, thereby giving purchase to your feet. In each hand one has a short, curved, ice axe that is designed to enable one to smoothly drive the pick into the frozen water, thereby giving you something to hold onto. In the event that someone above knocks off some ice, one wears a helmet to protect the head. For protection in the event of a fall, one has a rope firmly tied to a harness around the waist. While ascending, the climber regularly sets a hollow titanium screw into the ice. This forms part of a system of running anchors.

The rope attached to the climber's waist is clipped to the anchor, from which it runs to another person who is anchored below, paying out rope—but also positioned to catch the climber with the rope, should a fall occur. Properly placed, the ice screw will hold the load, with the ones below it as backup.

Fitness is critical. It doesn't matter how good my training is or how good my tools are: If I am halfway up a climb and run out of strength, I am a liability both to myself and my partner. The middle of a route is not the time or place to suddenly realize that it might have been a good idea to do some jogging, pull-ups, or other conditioning before setting out. If people want unnecessarily to put their lives at risk, I guess that is their prerogative. But they have no right to jeopardize that of their partner in the process.

The Element of Trust

This last point relates to the fact that the whole exercise is based on trust; trust in our training, our assessment of the situation, our tools, fitness, and—especially—our partner. You wouldn't consent to being driven on the freeway by someone you didn't trust, or who was impaired in one way or another. Nor would any reasonable person put their life in the hands of such a person in the mountains. Your partner is someone you trust with your life. Perhaps because of that, a partner is also the kind of person who makes the experience doubly enjoyable, being shared.

If all four of these factors are well considered and adequately addressed, the recreational ice climber can undertake routes with a margin of risk that is comparable to a typical urban bicycle commuter. If any or all of them is not adequately addressed, the consequences could be catastrophic.

The lessons for business are simple: the four considerations employed by the ice climber are exactly the same as those used by the serial entrepreneur or the effective business person. Of course it could be argued that the rich scope of business constitutes a much more amorphous challenge than a frozen waterfall. But that makes it all the more rash to proceed without carefully considering the following:

Training: What, in fact are the skills that would best equip me to engage this problem? Are they evident in my team? If so, how do I hone them? If not, how do I bring them onboard?

Tools: What tools are relevant to the problem? What are the potentially useful processes, technologies or other instruments that might give me purchase and protection throughout the exercise?

Fitness: How does one prepare? How rusty are my skills? What would constitute a warm-up exercise, or a "preliminary heat" that would let me find out if I were ready for the game?

Partners: No matter how good you and your team are, in most significant cases you will need partners. Do you have the right ones? My approach in this is simple: Get the best. If you can't, you might want to question the wisdom of proceeding. After all, if they aren't working for you, they may be working for someone on the other side of the table.

These basic points provide a skeleton on which you have the opportunity to flesh out your creativity. The more innovation and insight that you bring to determining the answers pertaining to each of these four points, and the more effectively you execute on the answers, the lower the risk of your endeavor and the higher the probability of success.

Are there any guarantees? Few. Yet if you fail, which you might, at least there is a higher probability that you will live to try again. But remember, business—like life—never was about certainty (as long as we rule out the proverbial death and taxes).

Finally, what struck me most about the question from Roger's student—a student in an MBA program at Rotman—was the implicit assumption that risk was the domain of the entrepreneur, not him. If there is a single message in all of this, it is this: The most dangerous way of all to play it is so-called safe. Safe leads to atrophy and certain death—of spirit, culture, and enterprise. There is not a single institution of merit or worthy of respect in our society that was not created out of risk. Risk is not only not to be avoided, it is to be embraced—for survival.

Anyone for ice climbing?

Bill Buxton is Principal Scientist at Microsoft Research and the author of Sketching User Experiences: Getting the Design Right and the Right Design. Previously, he was a researcher at Xerox PARC, a professor at the University of Toronto, and Chief Scientist of Alias Research and SGI Inc.

为什么一定要冒险？

为什么一定要冒险？

企业家，和冰山攀登者一样，常常是命悬一线。但是规避风险的方法的确存在，而且值得一试。

在最近一次和朋友，也是同事的Roger Martin（他是多伦多大学Rotman管理学校的校长）的谈话中，他提起他的一个学生问他：“是什么促使那些企业家感冒风险？难道是他们的肾上腺素分泌过于旺盛吗？”这使我想起当人们得知我酷爱冰山攀援时常常问我的一个问题：“你怎么那么热衷冒险？你真得很享受挑战死亡吗？”

我认为这两个问题是一回事，它们都出于同样的绝对观点，而其实这种绝对只是没有根据的假设：那就是‘冒险就等于危险。’现在，我不会试图说服你、要你相信“其实没有人喜欢拿着身家性命去赌。”但是的确有人拿着退休金去买彩票，中了百万美元，一夜暴富；也有人未经任何训练就横渡波涛汹涌的河流，不管怎么说他们所为的确是赌博，而不是投资。最终的结果因其可能失策而不可复制。

可预计的风险

所以如果这不是赌博的话，那怎么将那些曾出不穷的企业家、冰山攀登者同其他人区别开来呢？首先，他们非常清楚风险和危险的差别。第二，可能也是最重要的，他们知道什么会导致危险，进而可以将自己的风险尽可能降到最低。

其实每个人都清楚这些，至少明白一部分。例如：在风和日丽的一天，开着一部维修好的车奔驰在12号高速公路上，这对任何训练有素的司机恐怕都没什么危险可言，而对一个从来没开过车的人，或是开着刹车失灵的可能就是自杀（或谋杀）了。人类本性的奇妙之处在于人们不能将这种日常的例子转换为工作上来。

为什么企业家和冰山攀登者会不断地面对挑战死亡和灾难呢？对此我认为最合适的解释是由于局外人缺乏表面下事物的了解，他们忽视了“冒险者”对他们所从事的事情的认真、理智的准备。既然说到这里，我就来说点关于冰山攀登的事。

重要的工具

任何在结冰的湖面行走过、滑过冰或者玩过冰上掷石游戏的人都知道冰很滑，在上面行走需要点儿信心。现在想象一下把水平的冰面立起来，这就会让你有攀冰的感觉。但是记住有四样东西是对任何攀登都有用的：训练、工具、健康和同伴。

训练的必要性是显而易见的。你得知道你在干什么。就好像你在高速公路上驾驶你得知道交通规则一样。攀冰者需要受到关于技术、如何使用工具、攀岩的步骤、对冰层的了解及对客观风险的预计。

在过去的几十年里工具有了重大的变革。在脚上捆绑皮带，不是像旱冰鞋那样（而是更安全的），鞋底要有铁钉。鞋头上还有一个或多个长而尖的刺，用来刺进冰中，这样你的脚就能牢牢地钉在冰上。每人手里都有一个短曲斧，它可以让人平稳地在冰面上使用鹤嘴锄，你就有了可抓的把手。为了避免你上面的人凿落的冰，需佩戴头盔。为了防止跌落，腰上还会牢牢地拴一条绳索。而向上爬时，攀岩者会在冰上规则地钉入钛制空心螺钉。这些会形成滚动锚系统的一部分。

系在攀岩者腰部的绳索另一头夹在锚上，通过这个锚和锚位置下的人连接，下降时就是如此。放置合适的螺钉还可以为下面的人提供支撑。

健康至关重要。不论我的工具多么精量，训练多么有素：如果我爬到半截体力不支，我就会成为自己和同伴的负担。半山腰上可不是突然意识到出发前你该平时多练习慢跑、引体向上或其他什么的地方，时机也不对。如果有人不想拿自己的生命冒险，我看那是他的权力，但是在这个过程中他们可没有伤害同伴生命的权力。

信任

最后一点就是对信任的练习；信任你的训练、我们对周围情况的估计、我们的工具、健康，还有最重要的——我们的同伴。你不可能和你完全不信任的人或某些方面较弱的人在高速公路上开车 。自然也不会有人在冰山上把自己的性命交给这样的人。你的同伴是你可以生死相托的人。可能正因为如此，同伴也是享受双重经验，并可分享的人。

如果以上四个元素你都考虑完备，且准备周到，那冰上攀岩就和一般的在城市骑自行车一样是种休闲运动，只是加了冒险作佐料。而如果上面任何一个元素有失完善，都可能导致惨剧发生。

商业上的道理也一样：适用于冰上攀岩的四个要素同样适用于企业家或成功商人。当然商海的种种不测要大大高于屹立不动的冰瀑布。但是这些会导致对以下问题不加思索地草率行事：

训练：哪些技能能助我更好的解决问题？这些技能在我的团队中明显存在吗？如果有，我该如何好好利用？ 如果没有我又该如何得到这些技能。

工具：什么工具对这项任务有关？还有什么方法、技术或设备可能会为我赢得什么或起到保护作用？

健康：我准备得怎么样?我的技术是否生疏？我得进行哪些热身运动，或者来此预热来检验我是否对眼前的游戏准备就绪？

同伴：不论你或你的队伍多么优秀，在大多数重大情况下，你都需要同伴。你有合适的吗？我的方法很简单：选最好的。如果你选不出，就选最聪明的。总之，如果他们不为你做事，就可能会为别人做。

这些基础的要点为你提供了一个框架，你可以在上面发挥你的创造力。你对这四点的答案越具有创新性、越洞察透彻，你的作出的决定就越有效果，你承担的风险就越小，成功的机率越大。

有什么保障吗？几乎没有。如果你失败，是的，你的确有失败的可能，至少你能有较高的活下去、重头再来的机会。但是记住：商场，和生命一样，没有绝对（除了死亡和税收）。

最后，Roger的学生（他正在Rotman攻读MBA）的问题最震撼我的是他如此肯定风险是属于企业家的，而不是他。如果说这显示了唯一一条讯息的话，那就是：最危险的东西就是所谓的安全。安全导致精神、文化和进取心的萎缩和死亡。在我们的社会里所有优点和价值无一不是来源于用于冒险。风险是无法避免的，为了生存，应该积极面对它。

有人想开始冰上攀岩了吗？