[2007.09.10]No Recession in Sight in USA美国不会衰退
翻译: [2007.09.10]No Recession in Sight in USA美国不会衰退
美国看不见衰退/美国见不到衰退/美国不会衰退10-09-2007 WSJ
By MICKEY D. LEVY
Translated by Rongxin Wang 王荣欣
Despite recent financial turmoil and a dismal housing market, there are key reasons why the economy will continue to expand, albeit at a modest pace, and not go into recession. Businesses are well poised to absorb a period of weaker product demand and are unlikely to significantly alter their hiring and investment behavior. Consumer spending is supported by rising incomes. Exports are strong. And monetary policy is consistent with sustained growth in domestic demand. Next year, we will look back and once again marvel at the flexibility and resilience of the economy.
尽管近来金融动荡，房市低迷，但有主要理由可说明经济为何将继续发展，尽管速度不快，但不会走向衰退。企业平衡得很好，可缓冲一段时间更低的产品需求，并且不可能明显改变其聘用和投资行为。消费者支出可通过增长的收入获得支撑。出口强劲。并且货币政策与国内需求的持续增长保持一致。明年，我们将回过头，再次惊叹经济的适应力和恢复力。
To be sure, there is bad news. Housing construction and prices will continue to fall at least through 2008. There is an 18-year high in the inventory of unsold homes and soft sales that are constrained by several factors, including expectations that home prices have further to fall.
的确有坏消息。房屋建设和价格至少在2008年全年将继续下跌。未售出住宅的存量为18年来最高，销售疲软受制于几个因素，包括住宅价格将进一步下跌的预期。
The surge in home ownership, which rose dramatically to nearly 70% in 2005 from 64% in 1994, has proved just as unsustainable as the reliance on subprime mortgages. That surge has begun to recede, and lower prices and onerous adjustable-rate mortgage resets point toward a modest further decline -- each one percentage point represents about one million homes. That decline, along with foreclosures, will elongate the housing inventory adjustment, exert downward pressure on prices, keep builder s on the sidelines, and shrink employment in construction and the home finance sector.
住宅所有权的激增，从1994年的64%急剧上涨至2005年的接近70%， 只不过证明了依赖于次级抵押贷款是不可持续的。激增已开始回落，降低价格，并且繁重的可调整利率抵押贷款重新设定了百分点，以使更大程度的不景气是适度的 ——每一个百分点代表了大约一百万户住宅。这次不景气，伴随抵押赎回权的丧失，将延长房市存量的调整，加大价格向下的压力，使建造者束手旁观，减少建筑和 住宅金融部门的就业。
The good news is that other factors will provide an offset. First is international trade.
好消息是其他因素将形成抵消。第一个是国际贸易。
Strong U.S. exports and less reliance on imports, reflecting healthy economies overseas and the weaker U.S. dollar, are boosting production and job creation here. During the housing boom years 2002-2005, residential construction added an average 0.4 percentage points per year to real GDP as the widening trade deficit subtracted 0.6 percent. That's now reversing. Since mid-2006, while the decline in residential construction has subtracted 0.9 percentage points from GDP growth, the narrowing trade deficit has added 0.5 percentage points. Expect more of the same.
强劲的美国出口与更少依赖于进口，反映了国外健康的经济和更弱的美元，它们推进了美国的生产和就业创造。在2002年到2005年的房产繁荣期，住宅建设每年给真实GDP增加了0.4个百分点，而扩大的贸易赤字给GDP减少了0.6个百分点。现在反过来了。自2006年年中起，住宅建设每年给GDP增幅减少了0.9个百分点，而缩小的贸易赤字给GDP增加了0.5个百分点。预计将来更是如此。
Second, U.S. businesses are poised to withstand contraction.
第二，美国企业可以平稳地抵住紧缩。
During the late stages of prior economic expansions, as product demand slumped in response to excessive monetary restriction, firms tended to maintain production and employment growth, resulting in large inventory overhangs. Business capital spending also tended to grow too rapidly -- witness the late 1990s investment boom. Consequently, most of the decline in real GDP during prior recessions was attributable to inventory liquidation, which meant cutbacks in production and jobs, and sharp reductions in capital spending. Presently, those conditions don't exist.
在之前经济膨胀的晚期，过度的货币限制引起了产品需求跌落，工厂往往是保持生产和就业增长，结果带来了大量的存货过剩。企业资本支出也往往是过快增长——1990年代晚期投资繁荣即是见证。因此，在先前衰退期间，真实GDP的大部分减少可归咎于存货清算，这意味着生产和工作的缩减，以及资本支出的急剧减少。现在，这些条件已不复存在。
Businesses in a wide range of industries outside of the housing sector have nimbly adjusted their production processes, and inventories are very lean. That significantly reduces the potential impact of any slowdown in demand on production and employment. Similarly, firms have constrained investment spending while maintaining high cash balances. Following the capital spending boom of the 1990s, the unwinding of the capital stock, net of depreciation, also lowers the probability of a jarring reduction in business investment spending.
房产部门之外各个行业的企业迅速地调整了其生产流程，存货非常少。这明显地降低了任何需求减速对生产和雇佣的影响。同样，工厂已限制了投资支出，保持了高的现金盈余。延续1990年代资本支出繁荣，资本存量的松弛，净跌价也降低了商业投资支出严重减少的可能性。
Third, Fed monetary policy points toward sustained growth in nominal spending. Despite the financial turmoil, credit remains available to basic businesses and the vast majority of households, and a general "credit crunch" is highly unlikely to unfold.
第三，美联储货币政策朝向名义支出的持续增长。尽管金融动荡，基础企业和巨大的多数家庭仍然可以获得信贷，并且一般的“信贷破裂”基本不可能发生。
Historically, real disposable personal income has been the dominant factor driving consumer spending. As long as businesses maintain employment, and wages continue to rise, reflecting tight labor markets, rising personal income will outweigh the negative impacts of declining home prices, declines in mortgage refinancing, and even the recent increase in energy prices, on consumption.
在历史上，真实个人可支配收入已成为驱动消费者支出的主导因素。只要企业保持雇佣，工资继续增长，其反映了紧缺的劳动市场，则增长的个人收入就将超过房价下跌的负面影响，超过抵押贷款再融资减少对消费的影响，即使最近能源价格上涨。
This assessment presumes that businesses will not cut net jobs. No doubt, jobs will be lost in some industries -- real estate, mortgage brokers and related finance, to name a few. But that's minor in the context of 138 million U.S. workers.
这些估计假定企业不会减少净工作。毫无疑问，工作将在一些行业失去——房地产、抵押贷款中介和与金融相关的行业等。但鉴于美国有1.38亿工人，数量是微小的。
Fourth, my discussions with a wide array of business executives in an assortment of non-financial industries suggest that they have not materially altered their hiring plans, despite heightened concerns about general economic conditions. The majority plan to maintain employment levels or increase them in the next year, with most of the planned increases in export and international-related activities. September's reported rise in employment, covering the period of maximum financial crisis, is encouraging.
第四，我与非金融行业的大批企业执行者的讨论，显示他们不会明显改变其雇佣计划，尽管加强了对总体经济状况的关注。多数人计划保持雇佣水平或在明年增加，多数计划内的增长出现在出口以及与国际相关的活动。9月份就业增长的报告涵盖了金融危机最高的时期，该报告是令人鼓舞的。
Once again, turmoil on Wall Street doesn't necessarily translate to contraction on Main Street.
再一次，华尔街的动荡不一定会在市井街巷（Main Street）转化成紧缩。
Remember, following both the stock market crash of 1987 (which involved a cumulative 35% decline in equity valuations) and the 1998 financial crisis, the economy continued to expand. In both cases the Fed eased, financial markets absorbed the shock, and the economy proved resilient. The same will unfold this time; recession is not in the cards.
记住，1987年股票市场崩溃（引起股票价值累计跌了35%）与1998年金融危机之后，经济是继续增长的。在这两种情况下，美联储放松银根，金融市场缓冲了冲击，经济证明是有恢复力的。这一次也将一样发展；衰退是不可能的。
Mr. Levy is chief economist at Bank of America.
Levy先生是美洲银行首席经济学家。
