聚焦中国，tbt在暗处

China's media covered the country's earthquake tragedy more openly than any past disaster. But the Chinese government still maintains a blackout over news from Tibet, which experienced its biggest uprising in decades this spring.
相比以往历次灾难，这一次，中国媒体对地震造成的悲剧报道更加公开。但在春天经历最近十年以来最大规模骚乱之后，中国政府仍然对涉及西藏的新闻实行管制。

The blackout explains why you probably haven't heard about continuing sporadic protests by Buddhist monks and nuns in eastern Tibet, along with further arrests by the Chinese police. As China consolidates control of territory it considers its own, many Tibetans are placing their hopes on a Chinese offer of talks, now postponed, with representatives of the Dalai Lama, Tibet's spiritual leader-in-exile.
这种管制揭示了进来为什么你很少听说在西藏东部持续爆发的零星抗议，抗议来自喇嘛和女性佛教信徒，对此，中国警方正进一步打击该类行为。由于中国一向把这片土地看作领土的一部分，因此很多藏人寄希望于由中国政府和流亡宗教领袖达赖喇嘛进行的对话。

Previous talks have failed – and not just because of calcified mistrust. Rather, China appears to see its "Tibet problem" as a question of economic development, and seems unable to grasp the centrality of Buddhism to the Tibetan people's national and cultural identity.
前几次对话都以失败告终——并不仅仅是因为彼此的怀疑。似乎中国仍然把“西藏问题”看作一个经济发展问题，并且看起来他们无法理解佛教在西藏民族和文化中扮演的核心角色。

One high-ranking Communist Party official this spring called the Dalai Lama "a wolf in a monk's robes, a devil with a human face but the heart of a beast." Such language deeply offends many Tibetans.
今年春天，一名共产党高级官员称达赖喇嘛是“一只披着僧皮的狼，人面兽心的魔鬼”。这样的言辞深深伤害了很多藏族人。

Still, optimists are watching for signs that Beijing is serious this time about discussing the Dalai Lama's proposal for "meaningful autonomy" for Tibet. At the heart of this hope is a belief that a newly confident China, bolstered by its relatively open and rapid response to the earthquake and then by the Beijing Olympics, will agree to loosen its hold over the region.
时至今日，乐观者仍然在捕捉各种迹象，他们认为北京方面这次会严肃认真的对待达赖喇嘛提出的，关于西藏地区自治的建议。由于这次地震中政府表现出的开明态度和快速的反应，以及随后在北京召开奥运会将会放松管制的尺度，因此他们从内心希望看到一个崭新的充满信心的中国。

Pessimists note that China may have agreed to the talks simply to deflect international pressure prior to the Olympics while pursuing a harsh policy of arrests and "patriotic education" campaigns inside Tibet.
而悲观者则注意到中国统一进行这次对话可能仅仅出于在奥运会之前摆脱国际压力的需要，虽然他们正在执行制裁政策，并在西藏进行“爱国教育”。

I saw all this two decades before as a reporter covering three Tibetan uprisings in Lhasa in 1987, 1988, and 1989.
作为一名记者，我目睹了二十年前发生在拉萨的三次暴动。它们分别别发生在1987年，1988年和1989年。

Then, as now, it began with Buddhist monks protesting and shouting slogans. The police then detained and beat up some of the monks. Other Tibetans reacted violently. Blaming the Dalai Lama for causing all the trouble, Beijing finally reacted with massive force.
当时与现在情形类似，事情发源于喇嘛们的抗议和申诉。警察拘留并殴打僧人，激起其他藏族人的不满。而在北京动用了大批武装人员之后，最后把责任全部推到达赖喇嘛身上。

Western governments urged talks with representatives of the Dalai Lama, and Beijing ultimately agreed. But in the end those talks led nowhere.
西方国家政府积极推动了中国与达赖喇嘛的代表举行对话，最终北京方面同意了，但随后的那些对话往往无疾而终。

The two sides reopened "informal" talks on May 4, and what the Tibetans describe as a more formal meeting was set to begin June 11, but China has now postponed that meeting.
双方重新开始的“非正式”会谈开始于五月四日，但藏人所说的正式会谈原定于六月十一日开始，但是现在中国方面推迟了会谈。

What will it take to break the cycle of protests, violence, crackdowns, and failed talks that has prevailed ever since the People's Liberation Army marched into Tibet in 1950?
自从解放军于1950年入藏以来，什么东西能打破这个由抗议、暴力、制裁和失败的对话构成的怪圈呢？

Many young Tibetans are beginning to question whether the Dalai Lama's "Middle Way Approach," which calls for genuine autonomy for Tibet, has any chance of succeeding. In an interview with the Financial Times on May 25, the Dalai Lama conceded that he is losing influence over Tibetans who favor a more militant approach aimed at full independence.
很多年轻的藏人已经开始质疑达赖喇嘛的“中间路线”，是否改变西藏真正自治这种提法才会有成功的机会。在五月二十五日金融时报的一次访问中，达赖喇嘛承认他的威望在下降，一些藏族人正倾向于走一条极端路线，谋求完全独立。

Western experts say that the Chinese government's mistrust of the Dalai Lama is now so great that only small steps forward can be expected from the talks. The hope, though, is that even small steps will create movement toward a broader understanding. The Dalai Lama told the Financial Times that he would be willing to attend the Olympics if the Chinese halt the arrests and torture of Tibetans, provide proper medical aid to those who were wounded in the crackdown, and allow the international media access to Tibet.
西方专家认为，中国政府并不信任达赖喇嘛，因此可以预见，这次对话不会取得太大进展。尽管如此，一些小的进展仍有希望制造一种趋势，让事态朝着多方达成谅解的方向发展。达赖喇嘛向金融时报表示，如果中国政府放弃对藏族人的逮捕和制裁，为在事件中受伤的藏族人提供医学援助，并允许国际媒体进入西藏的话，他将会出席奥运会。

Early signs are not auspicious. The Chinese government appears unwilling to acknowledge what may be the real causes of the recent Tibetan unrest. One of those causes is certainly China's failure to implement its own autonomy law that now, in theory, protects the Tibetans' language, culture, and religion. Another is a Chinese government decision last year decreeing that China will now oversee the recognition of all reincarnate Tibetan lamas, or "living Buddhas," presumably including the next incarnation of the Dalai Lama himself.
一开始并没有什么好兆头，中国政府似乎非常固执，他们不愿意承认造成西藏动荡的真正原因。其中一个很重要的原因是中国政府没有很好的执行他们自己的自治法律，依法保护藏族人的语言、文化和宗教信仰。另外一个原因是去年中国政府宣布将会对所有的西藏喇嘛，或者“活佛”转世化身进行监视，其中可能包括达赖喇嘛本人的转世化身。

Yet another cause of unrest has been a state-run program to resettle Tibetan nomads, causing great disruptions in their traditional way of life. Nomads participated in large numbers in the recent protests.
另外一个造成动荡的原因是官方对游牧民的定居政策，给他们的生活造成了很大的混乱。在最近的抗议中，就有大量的游牧民参与。

But China appears to have concluded that it can out-wait the Dalai Lama, now 72, in hope that his death will result in the collapse of Tibetan resistance altogether. In the meantime, China plans for a major expansion of its new railroad network inside Tibet, bringing in more Han Chinese immigrants and some day possibly swamping the Tibetan population.
达赖喇嘛已经七十二岁了，中国政府似乎在拖延他的时间，希望他的死亡能够可以导致藏人抵抗运动的土崩瓦解。在此期间，中国计划把他们庞大的铁路网络延伸到西藏内部，籍此带来更多的汉族移民，期望有一天汉族人口会大规模超过当地的藏族人口。

Experts who have tracked the recent uprising say this influx could well lead to even greater frustration and more unrest, with resentment lasting for generations. It's already lasted more than 50 years.
专家们认为，人口流入政策可能会失败，它可能导致更多冲突。仇恨之火已经燃烧了超过五十年，它们还有可能被传给下一代人。

• Dan Southerland, executive editor of Radio Free Asia, is a former Monitor correspondent and Beijing bureau chief for The Washington Post.