第二次绿色革命

With lofty grain prices forcing an estimated 100 million people toward severe hunger, a food summit in Rome this week may help boost emergency relief. But the world faces a long-term crisis in supply, one that needs the same devotion – and results – of the Green Revolution four decades ago.
高涨的谷物价格导致大约十亿人陷入严重的饥荒，本周在罗马举行的食物峰会可能会让这些人获得紧急救助。但是，整个世界面临一次长期的供应危机，四十年前绿色革命的奉献精神——以及成果，需要重现。

It was largely American investment in agricultural science that drove the productivity revolution of the 1960s and '70s, creating new varieties of rice, wheat, and other crops – and prevented mass starvation. But success in higher yields led to complacency and a decline in research for further – and now necessary – gains, especially in less-arable lands.
美国在农业科技上的大规模投资主导了1960到1970年代的生产力革命，创造了新型的水稻、小麦和其他作物——并且防止了大规模的饥荒。但是，作物高产方面的成功导致了自满情绪，并妨碍了更进一步增产的研究——这是现在急需的——特别是对可耕地较少的地区。

And in hindsight, US leadership was largely driven by concern during the cold war to keep poor countries from going communist.
事后看来，在整个冷战期间，美国的领导才能被过多用于关注那些贫穷的共产国家。

Now the world again faces a food shortage, reflected in a nearly 70 percent price rise over the past two years. The productivity gains of the past simply aren't enough to feed an additional 3 billion people by 2050. And the crisis has become acute because of a convergence of factors: a rapid rise in oil prices, droughts caused by climate change, a rising Asian demand for grain-fed meat, and the diversion of land to produce corn ethanol.
现在，世界再一次面临食品危机，在过去两年里粮食价格上涨超过百分之七十。到2050年，仅靠生产能力的增加将无法养活未来新增的三十亿人口。并且这次危机因为其他因素的介入而愈发尖锐：快速上升的石油价格，气候变化带来的干旱，亚洲地区对谷类食品需求的增长，以及由于生产玉米乙醇而造成的耕地占用。

With US attention largely diverted to domestic concerns, the June 3-5 food summit is a critical test of whether a collective global leadership can push big reforms in how the world feeds itself.
美国国内已经开始广泛关注这一问题，“世界如何养活自己”，六月三日到五日召开的食品峰将是一次关键性的考验，全球的领袖们是否愿意在这方面推动一次大的变革。

A second green revolution would need to go beyond recent science in genetically modified (GM) seeds. Poor farmers often can't afford the high prices charged by companies that own rights to these seeds. And in many nations, especially in Europe, consumers remain unnecessarily wary of GM food. Despite advances in GM crops over the past decade, world crop yields have risen at about half the yearly rate since 1990 as they did during the two previous decades of the Green Revolution.
第二次绿色革命需要超越近来在遗传转基因种子方面的科学成就。那些拥有这些种子所有权的公司开出高昂的价格，贫穷的农夫对此往往无力负担。并且对很多国家，特别是欧洲国家来说，消费者对转基因食品的担忧毫无必要。在转基因作物方面的进展已经超过了上一个十年，而在绿色革命的前两个十年里，自从1990年起全世界农作物产量逐年上升百分之五十。

A first step would be to recognize the revolution's mistakes. It relied too much on the assumption of cheap oil and on farmers' ability to afford expensive pesticides and chemical fertilizers. The easy gains in productivity were also based on building massive irrigation systems.
首先我们要承认绿色革命中犯下的错误。它过于依赖几个假设，即廉价的石油以及农民有能力负担昂贵的杀虫剂以及化肥费的价格。另外，修建大范围的灌溉系统也很容易提高农作物的收成。

A smarter revolution will need to consider many more variables, such as global warming, new types of nonpetroleum energy, and better ways of watering (such as drip systems). Finding silver bullets in farm science must now give way to scattershot approaches, often tailored to local conditions.
一次聪明的革命需要考虑更多的变数，例如全球变暖，新型石油能源，以及更好的灌溉方法（例如滴灌系统）。农业科学中单点突破必须让位于多点开花的思路，这通常需要因地制宜。

Those countries that need higher crop yields will also need to adjust to new types of assistance. Aid now focuses on reviving, not restricting private markets. Donors expect long-term accountability in results. Strings will be attached, such as demands to remove trade barriers and divert more government resources to rural areas.
那些需要作物高产的国家同时也将需要新型的援助。援助的重点是恢复而不是限制私人市场。对于结果，援助国应负有长期责任。相互联系将会加强，例如要求取消贸易壁垒，并把更多的政府资源转移到农业地区。

A recent forecast of a 60 percent rise in food prices over the next decade should serve as a wake-up call about recent declines in agricultural investment – and barriers to trade in farm products, such as subsidies to rich farmers in the West. But who will jump on this tractor and drive in the direction it needs to go?
一项最近的预测表明，今后十年粮食价格将会上涨至少百分之六十，对于目前逐年下降的农业投资来说这是一个严重的警示——另外还有农业产品的贸易壁垒，例如对富有的西方农民的津贴。但是谁将会跳上这台拖拉机，把它开往应该去的地方呢？